The Medium Term Financial Strategy aims to focus on the longer-term sustainability of Scotland’s public finances and support a strategic approach to financial planning. The (recent) publication of this document alongside the Spring forecast is supposed to support the year-round budgeting process in Holyrood, allowing the pre-budget scrutiny of committees in the Summer and … [Read more...] about Fiscal challenges for the Scottish Government, Pt 96
Are there thousands of jobs at risk in North East Scotland?
The future of the oil and gas industry in the North Sea is a core issue in the Scottish campaign for the July 4 general election and featured heavily in the June 11 televised debate among five leaders that, typically, generated more heat than light. Here's a dispassionate view from one of our leading economists. Aberdeen and Grampian Chambers of Commerce (AGCC) has recently put … [Read more...] about Are there thousands of jobs at risk in North East Scotland?
GERS 2023: uptick in oil revenues narrows the budget deficit
These statistics form the backdrop to a key battleground in the constitutional debate, particularly when it is focussed on the fiscal sustainability of an independent Scotland and what different choices Scotland could make in terms of taxation and spending. So what do the latest statistics show? The latest figures show that the net fiscal balance for 2022-23 was £19.1bn, which … [Read more...] about GERS 2023: uptick in oil revenues narrows the budget deficit
Treasury gives Holyrood more fiscal leeway
The UK and Scottish governments have finally published the long-awaited update to the Fiscal Framework, following the review that has been going on for the last couple of years. Since this was due to happen in 2021, we have been waiting for the outcome of this review. For more background, see our blog from late 2021. For those new to it, the Fiscal Framework … [Read more...] about Treasury gives Holyrood more fiscal leeway
How sustainable are Scottish tax and spend policies?
The Scottish Fiscal Commission have published their first Fiscal Sustainability Report (FSR). This is a very different analysis to their regular forecasts for the Scottish economy, tax receipts and social security payments. The idea of measures of fiscal sustainability is to assess whether current policies on both spending and revenues can continue over the long-term, given the … [Read more...] about How sustainable are Scottish tax and spend policies?