The parlous state of UK public finances and spillover impact of the October 30 Budget could mean Holyrood refuses to pass next year’s Scottish Budget, triggering the government’s resignation
Scottish politics
SNP ‘Company Man’ can’t save the party he loves
“Leadership requires a willingness to confront so much that he turned a blind eye to. A decent, able functionary, as Swinney understood when he stood down as leader in 2014, does not have the qualities required to lead a political party, far less to lead a government.”
GERS 2023-24: The results are in!
“…the challenge is stark, with a likely deficit far in excess of the UK as a whole, other comparable countries or that which is deemed to be sustainable in the long-term. It is not enough to say ‘everything will be fine’ or ‘look at this country, they can run a sensible fiscal balance so why can’t Scotland?’. Concrete proposals and ideas are needed.”
Looking for political dynamism in UK/Scotland
“The real political question may be where new energy and ideas come from. Are Scottish Labour or the SNP capable of providing that energy? Or will it come from a wider, new and innovative political and social debate across Scotland? If not, the current doldrums may continue and that’s not to the benefit of our politics whoever wins in 2026”
Political posturing over child poverty
Over 4m British children live in relative poverty and they are four times more likely to suffer mental health issues than better-off kids. Ending the two-child benefit cap is just one remedy.
The Scottish Covenant at 75 should be revived
“Like Hamilton and MacCormick, most of the people whose names are on the Scottish Covenant are no longer with us. But it would be a fitting tribute to their efforts to find a place for it in the Scottish Parliament, which was finally reconvened 50 long years it was launched.”
Can the SNP win on July 4?
“With a cautious, centre-right Labour party offering six lukewarm pledges, any confident, pro-EU, pro-independence, social democrat (if the SNP still is) party should be moving ahead not sinking in the polls. Can the SNP still win?”
Swinney a shoo-in? Nae thanks
‘My idea is that one tries to exit this quagmire by staging Scottish (and maybe Welsh and Northern Irish) and UK elections on the same day – or perhaps staggered over several days like the upcoming European Parliament elections on June 6-9. The campaigning could last several weeks or months, enabling a full-scale, profound debate on the UK’s future to take place. Constitutional, socio-economic, geopolitical.’
Blind men and the elephant
‘Scottish policy making remains too top-down, centralised with bureaucrats at the centre assuming their expertise trumps all others. Disconfirmatory evidence that things are not working is often ignored. Believers find excuses, blame others while their support for their pet policy is, as in When Prophecy Fails, ‘not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth’ of their way.’
What next for Yousaf and the SNP?
“Scotland has harvested much of the low-hanging fruit when it comes to reducing carbon emissions – although there are still big gains to be made from insulating homes. The Parliament’s powers are very limited. It can’t borrow money to invest and its capital budget has been slashed. A greater degree of cross-party unity will be needed to make serious progress in the areas which are within its reach.”