When the draft Scottish Budget was presented to Parliament in December, we raised some concerns about the extent to which lessons about financial planning from previous years had been learnt. In particular, there was the decision not to budget for the likely shortfall in funding for the Employers National Insurance change, and the announcement of a commitment to mitigate the … [Read more...] about Fiscal sustainability and the Scottish budget
Economics
Budgets, ideas and lethargy in the Scottish Government
It has been a grim few days for the Scottish Government. First of all, the Finance Secretary, Shona Robison (pictured), outlined how an extra £1 billion of funds had to be used to fill a fiscal hole for this financial year. Leaving us wondering what on earth she was going to do for next year. Then, in the shadow of this dismal prognosis, the First Minister, John Swinney, … [Read more...] about Budgets, ideas and lethargy in the Scottish Government
GERS 2023-24: The results are in!
The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2023-24 statistics - that normally provoke a bitter and unrewarding spat over their significance for Scottish independence and/or the Union - came out on August 14 with little or no trace of late summer madness. These statistics set out three main things, write the FAI authors:The revenues raised from Scotland, from both … [Read more...] about GERS 2023-24: The results are in!
Why Labour’s “borrowing to invest’ rule is no game-changer
On 19 March the (then Shadow) Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the 36th Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School in London. This was an opportunity for Labour to set out its stall on economic policy, and Rachel Reeves used it as a chance to outline her proposed fiscal rules. In doing so, she said:[O]ur fiscal rules differ from the government’s. Their borrowing rule, which … [Read more...] about Why Labour’s “borrowing to invest’ rule is no game-changer
Swinney must move beyond old orthodoxies
John Swinney, Scotland’s new first minister, faces no shortage of challenges. Lurking behind many of them lies a common cause: an economy that is not working. Data published this week shows that Scotland’s economy shrank by 0.3% in February, leaving the country on the brink of recession. Economic downturns rarely spell good news for voters or politicians. But if the new … [Read more...] about Swinney must move beyond old orthodoxies