Fraser of Allander Institute
Certain uncertainties of Iran War, inflation and public finances
What to do? Take a targeted approach to support those in most need
Public pay settlements: a crisis waiting for the next Scottish government
The Scottish government has long practised the exercise of kicking problematic cans down the road. Perhaps wider world crises will keep eyes off Scotland’s immediate pay problems but Fraser of Allander’s deputy director Dr João…
Business anticipates uneasy start to 2026
Business confidence in Scotland remains weak, according to the Fraser of Allander Institute’s Scottish Business Monitor with firms pointing to cost pressures, subdued investment and little expectation of short-term relief. All six headline indicators in…
In this Scottish Budget the silences were loudest
The Cabinet Secretary chose to talk about policies such as higher bands of council tax on million-pound-plus properties and increases in the Scottish Child Payment for children under the age of one, but neither takes…
Fraser of Allander takes another bite at the Budget
“The proposed pay-per-mile charge raises important questions of fairness and is likely to be a source of public debate.” After the endless leaky build up, the 2025 UK Budget raises many questions and uncertainties about…
More green energy jobs
“Policymakers must continue to focus on creating competitive conditions for renewable energy to ensure we reap the economic benefits of the energy transition.”
Welfare reforms: the (unknown) Scottish dimension
“The Scottish Government’s block grant adjustment is based on the projected expenditure in England and Wales, and therefore a tightening of access to PIP will (all else equal) make the Scottish Budget worse off. It…
Fiscal sustainability and the Scottish budget
The draft Scottish Budget raised concerns regarding financial planning, particularly about the Funding shortfall for Employer National Insurance and the late commitment to mitigate the two-child limit on benefits. Mitigation aims to help families affected…
What does the Autumn Statement mean for Scotland?
“As these are devolved matters, the Scottish Government receives this funding but is under no obligation to match the policies announced by Westminster. For example, the retail, hospitality and leisure relief is a repeat of…
Swinney should use his fiscal powers to the full: Update
“But there are also flexibilities that the Deputy First Minister has for the next financial year that were not available to him for this year – the Scottish Government does have tax powers that could…
Going for growth – or broke?
The new UK Chancellor has set out his radical fiscal plans – and prompted a sterling crisis. The situation is so grave, not least for Scotland, it merits a return from us in the interests…
Sunak’s Budget and Scotland
“..further Covid-related allocations are designed to support the economy during ongoing restrictions – and these provide the Scottish Government with further resources during 2021/22. In years beyond that, this was a budget that aims to…