With the cost of both energy and debt repayments rising, what can the UK government do? Take a targeted approach to support those in most need, writes João Sousa, Fraser of Allander deputy director. War broke out in Iran and the broader Middle East just days before the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented its latest forecasts. At the time, we noted that … [Read more...] about Certain uncertainties of Iran War, inflation and public finances
Economy
Global food insecurity: another dividend from Trump’s war of choice
Oil powers cars. Nitrogen powers crops. If the strait of Hormuz closes, the most consequential price may not be Brent crude but the cost of feeding the world." In The Conversation authors Nima Shokri and Salome M. S. Shokri-Kuehni highlight yet another unintended consequence of the chaos spiralling from US and Israeli attack on Iran: fertiliser shock. '"Tehran is moving … [Read more...] about Global food insecurity: another dividend from Trump’s war of choice
Business anticipates uneasy start to 2026
Higher costs, lower employment, reluctance to invest – Sanjam Suri and Josh Hampson find a persistently gloomy outlook among Scottish business in the latest survey by Fraser of Allander. But does AI produce a glimmer of light on the horizon? Business confidence in Scotland remains weak, according to the Fraser of Allander Institute’s Scottish Business Monitor with firms … [Read more...] about Business anticipates uneasy start to 2026
How will next SNP government tackle fiscal mess left by this one? #ScottishBudget
Eradicating child poverty? Growing the economy? Tackling climate crisis? Ensuring quality public services? Reviewing the Scottish Budget and Spending Review 2026, John McLaren finds a weary government’s major ‘achievement’ has been to hide the cuts coming down the line – after the election. The whole Budget debacle showed a government truly out of ideas and one that has … [Read more...] about How will next SNP government tackle fiscal mess left by this one? #ScottishBudget
In this Scottish Budget the silences were loudest
It’s hard to see how the Scottish Government can claim – as it does in its Budget document – to be running a “sustainable pay policy.” It’s also hard to square these pay deals with the allocation of just 0.7% growth in real terms for the Health portfolio... Fraser of Allander budget report, authors João Sousa, Ciara Crummey, Spencer Thompson The devil was very much … [Read more...] about In this Scottish Budget the silences were loudest