‘There comes a time, as with (Taioseach John) Costello, that leaving the UK is easier and less risky than staying with all its current and prospective dangers. How ironic will it be if, as with our Celtic cousins, a Scottish Republic is delivered by former No voters rather than ardent nationalists?’
Ireland
Sinn Fein surge and the border
‘This created the space Sinn Féin needed for an election on its terms – in many respects the party had precisely the kind of election the UK Labour Party wanted and failed to get in 2019.’ Why SF won…
Crack of light in Northern Ireland
As Northern Ireland’s political plates shift, ‘of course, Johnson may not want to concede another independence referendum. But it seems certain that, one way or another, Scotland will not be able to tolerate indefinite Tories. And neither can we.’
Will no deal bring break-up of UK?
‘Given that an independence referendum is very unlikely to happen before the latter half of 2021 at the earliest, Scotland would not become an independent country any earlier than the middle years of the next decade.’
The Union’s last premier?
‘Should Johnson stumble in any one of these minefields he will quickly find that his upbeat tone and soundbites about the ‘awesome foursome’ are far from enough to keep the union together’.
Northern Ireland border poll
‘An early poll, particularly if it takes place in a political atmosphere that is strained following a hard Brexit, could seriously destabilise both parts of Ireland, and put at risk the political gains and civil order of recent decades.’