For the co-editors it is more obvious that the Scottish polity – and parts of civil society – is simply not prepared to get out of its comfort zone, rethink Scotland’s position within a rapidly changing geo-political environment, join in European and global debates on the way forward or, bluntly, abandon its parochialism and provincialism. There is simply a brick wall of often sullen incomprehension in front of us.
That’s what we said almost 18 months ago when we shut up shop after seven years – only to resume very sporadic publishing six months later when it appeared a political awakening was stirring in Scotland. But, like 2023’s Scottish summer, this proved to be only too brief. Zombie Scotland has resumed its navel-gazing.
Of course, things have changed – and quite dramatically within the party in power for the last 16 years. The Police Scotland investigations into apparent skullduggery in the ruling SNP have seen three leading party figures, including former First Minister/leader Nicola Sturgeon, arrested (and released without charge). These inquiries, now embracing possible embezzlement, continue grindingly slowly with little or no visibility about outcomes.
Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first BAME leader (an unremittingly good thing), has replaced Sturgeon but the socio-economic stagnation that marked her latter years in Bute House has worsened under his tutelage. Far worse for the SNP, it is now accompanied by political decline after all those years in power, with pollster John Curtice putting the blame squarely on Yousaf.
The party may be polling around 36/37% for Holyrood/Westminster, putting it ahead of Scottish Labour but that’s down from the mid-40s earlier this year and the gap between the two is narrowing. The upcoming Rutherglen by-election for a new MP – no date has been fixed but October 5 pencilled in – will show whether Labour has a genuine chance of winning those 25 seats in Scotland first identified by the Scottish Fabians as key to Keir Starmer’s general election victory.
Even if Labour does win Rutherglen, and it’s too close to call so far, don’t expect any dramatic change. For one thing, Starmer’s Labour under his centralised control is proving ultra-conservative in policy terms, especially fiscally (shades of Blair/Brown 1997 except that New Labour did lift children out of poverty and improve school outcomes) – and unwilling to allow Anas Sarwar anything but marginal leeway north of the border.
Barring a complete collapse of popular confidence/trust in the SNP – maybe triggered by the outcome of those police inquiries or the break-up of the governance deal with the Scottish Greens but Yousaf could carry on as a minority administration as Fergus Ewing suggests – Holyrood elections remain slated for 2026 or virtually three years away. That can only mean three more years of stagnation.
“Only with independence”
But can Scotland really afford three more years of zombie government? Across the board Yousaf’s performance and that of his team, including the Scottish Green cabinet duo, is lamentable as we have tracked here over the last eight years. No need to spell them out; plenty of others in the mainstream and ‘alternative’ media are doing that daily. See the Ferret, for example, on claims the attainment gap in education has declined by two-thirds: “mostly false.”
What matters here is that even the more forward-looking/progressive policies – creating the circular economy, switching decisively to non-fossil fuels/renewables, a new green industrial deal creating tens of thousands of skilled jobs – are turning to dust or faltering. Or, worse, simply being shoved into the long grass. As this NGO leader laments:
We stood on the world stage as ‘global leaders’ for nature at COP15 in Montreal, but now threaten to junk even the modest commitments made. Where is the leadership? Where are the commitments to future generations?” (Beccy Speight, RSPB CEO, on the UK as a whole)
The SNP’s answer to this is utterly disingenuous: “only with independence” will Scotland be able to achieve those goals. And, in the latest iteration, be “fairer, healthier and wealthier”. For every domestic failing/failure blame Westminster – Tories or Labour, it doesn’t matter, they’re the same. The party leadership simply has no (agreed) strategy for how it will deal with the next UK government.
Nor, and this matters even more, does it have one for its own core strategy: independence in Europe. Not only is the Scottish Government paper on this crucial issue almost a year overdue, but no discernible work has been done on preparing the ground for the new institutions – central bank, debt management office, diplomatic service inter alia – that must be in place if Scotland is to become an EU member state in its own right. That was a key point made by Prof Stephen Gethins, former SNP spokesman on Europe in the Commons, at a recent EMiS webinar with Eddie Barnes of Our Scottish Future. Not forgetting regulatory divergence and, yes, the border.
Building institutions would have to start at least two or three years before formal accession talks begin – assuming a) independence was in place b) the UK had settled outstanding issues such as the border and c) the EU member states agreed. It’s unclear whether these two sets of negotiation would run in parallel or consecutively. Either way, we would likely be well into the 2030s before independence in Europe becomes reality if at all. (You can read more on fast-tracking accession here.)
Back to gradualism?
So, what’s to be done? Unlike in Lenin’s eponymous revolutionary pamphlet of 1902, a gradualist, step-by-step approach could be ineluctable. And maybe fruitful. The former Scottish Greens’ leader, Robin Harper, has caused a wee stir by announcing his departure from that party and arguing the case for a reformed UK: “A rejuvenated efficient, co-operative, economically sound United Kingdom is an inspiring objective and we could all get round it.”
That, of course, begs the question of whether and how that rejuvenation could be achieved. But we cannot carry on like this, mired in SNP-led stagnation and Conservative-led decline and impoverishment. That’s why suggestions of a return to “a government of all the talents” with bells on and other ideas should form part of an honest Scottish/British conversation about the years ahead – and the best policies and institutions for achieving that rejuvenation and reinvention. One shorn of nostalgia and delusions. We’re willing to play our small part. Under the mantra: delivery, delivery, delivery!
Graeme Purves says
It’s all very well lamenting that everything is dreadful, but if you can’t come up with anything better than a ‘government of all the talents’ you might be better turning your attention to tending to your cabbages.