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You are here: Home / Articles / Labour’s revival puts SNP on the defensive

Labour’s revival puts SNP on the defensive

October 11, 2022 by James Mitchell 5 Comments

The potential to break the Scottish political deadlock grows as the prospect of a Labour Government at Westminster looms into sight.

Scottish Labour was marginalised so long as the dominant issue was a binary choice between independence and the status quo.  It struggled to shift the focus away from the constitution and onto Labour’s more comfortable territory of health, welfare and social services.  The party of devolution was damned by Tories as soft on nationalism and condemned as unionist by the SNP.

But the SNP-Tory political co-dependency is now under threat.  Each party depends on the other to sustain its support.  Each prefers the other as its main opponent.  Life becomes more difficult for each with a Labour revival.

Scottish Labour’s recovery was always likely to be, to borrow a phrase, a process, not an event.  The first and most challenging stage was to overtake the Tories and become not only the main challenger to the SNP but perceived as such.  The SNP would far prefer the Tories as its main challenger but could be relatively relaxed so long as Labour and the Tories were fighting it out for second place.  Labour is now clearly the main challenger to the SNP. The SNP had positioned itself, aided by the shift of focus with the independence referendum, as the main anti-Tory party. 

Electoral plates are shifting

The problem the SNP now has is similar to that which the Tories faced responding to New Labour after 1992.  The Tories could not find a clear and consistent attack line.  There is one significant difference.  The Tories had been holed below the water by Black Wednesday in September 1992, losing the reputation for economic competence just as it has again now.  The SNP has not experienced such a catastrophe.  But neither has it retained the reputation for competence that won it an overall majority in Holyrood in 2011. 

Governing competence matters less so long as the constitution assumes primacy along a sharp binary divide.  The SNP only needed to present politics as a choice between independence and Tory unionism.  Tory poll leads across the UK were portrayed by the SNP as evidence that Labour could not ‘convince the UK electorate that Keir Starmer is the man to replace Boris Johnson’, as SNP HQ claimed.  Starmer indeed did not replace Johnson but that was only because, in an act of desperation, the Tories, fearing defeat, jettisoned Johnson for someone who has proved even more electorally damaging to the Tory cause. And now Starmer not only looks more Prime Ministerial but set to replace Liz Truss (or whoever may replace her…).

Labour’s dramatic revival undermines that simple formulation.  A former SNP strategist offered a rather desperate interpretation of the YouGov poll showing a 33 point Labour lead and took comfort from, or assumed limited public understanding of polls, a +1 increase in SNP support to 5% across the UK.  As Labour’s lead was confirmed, SNP HQ turned from arguing that Labour could not win to past performance.  Then came a tweet from SNP HQ: ‘The Tories can be removed from power temporarily, but for Scotland there is only one that will do it forever – independence’.  As the SNP is avowedly democratic and there is no democratic way to remove a party ‘forever’, we can safely take this as evidence that the SNP is indeed rattled.

The problem is not just which party is in power at Westminster — the problem is Westminster, Nicola Sturgeon at SNP Conference 22 in Aberdeen

Hating the Tories

Then there was Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘I detest the Tories and everything they stand for’.  The comment is typical of a strand of Scottish politics.  For decades the competition  between Labour and the SNP has been more about which is the more effective anti-Tory vehicle. In place of radical or progressive ideas, the competition is to see who can sound – and the emphasis is on ‘sound’ – most anti-Tory.  It will not convert Tory voters – they were unlikely to be converted anyway – but might help shore up support in places where Labour is the threat. The SNP is clearly on the defensive. Nicola Sturgeon’s speech closing her Aberdeen conference was very defensive, an appeal to the faithful and the core vote.

There have always been politicians who have denounced opponents in very strong terms.  Party events and conferences create an atmosphere for such behaviour.  Emily Thornbury’s comment that she hated the SNP was an example though she had the good grace to apologise subsequently.  Nye Bevan’s denunciation of the Tories at Labour’s 1948 conference is notorious: ‘No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party… So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin. They condemned millions of first-class people to semi-starvation.’  Bevan’s views were forged in childhood experiences in Tredegar where his father, a miner, died of pneumoconiosis without any compensation. Nicola Sturgeon is no Nye Bevan.  Her comments were less vituperative, more controlled and far less convincing. She is far from unusual in Scottish politics in practicing the art of anti-Tory rhetoric as a substitute for progressive politics.

Defensive nationalists

What happens in the aftermath of the election will be more challenging for the SNP than its current struggle to respond to Labour’s advance.  A Labour Government is a major headache for it.  Convincing voters that London government is all bad will become much more difficult than at present.

The ‘same old Labour’ Party is ‘willing to chuck Scotland under Boris Johnson’s Brexit bus in order to get the keys to Downing Street’, Sturgeon in Aberdeen

The biggest challenge for the SNP will arise if Labour is returned as the largest party but without an overall majority.  Over many decades now we have seen thata very high cost is paid by parties aligning with the Conservatives. The SNP suffered for many years because it was perceived to have ushered in 18 years of Tory rule after bringing down the Labour Government in 1979.  In 2015, the Liberal Democrats lost 49 of their 57 seats across Britain, including 10 of their eleven seats in Scotland, after they coalesced with the Tories.  And, of course, Labour lost 40 seats, clinging on to only one seat in Scotland, in 2015 after working with Tories in Better Together.

Labour’s plans to replace the Lords with a House of Nations and Regions will ensure that all parts of the UK will have an authoritative and effective voice at the centre regardless of who is in Downing Street.  SNP MPs will have little choice other than to support a reform that will undermine support for independence unless it sides with the Tories to defend the archaic House of Lords.

Still, it might be argued that voters in Scotland have yet to take on board the fact that Labour now stands on average at 50% in the Britain-wide polls, says John Curtice.

The process of recovery has begun for Scottish Labour.  It can now focus on winning back what Anas Sarwar describes as ‘soft SNP’ voters.  This will not be plain sailing.  The SNP remains a formidable campaign organisation.  The SNP’s incompetence across a range of policy areas contrasts with its brilliance in campaigning.  The ‘creatives’ who run the SNP communication network are in a class of their own when it comes to performative politics.  But their evident discombobulation tells us that Scottish Labour is back and a real threat.

Further reading: Labour can take ten to 12 seats from SNP at next GE, Kathleen Nutt, Herald; No bombast from Sturgeon..., Severin Carrell, The Guardian; SNP conference: enormous venue with precious little substance to fill it, Tom Gordon, Herald; How much of a challenge does Labour pose to the SNP?, Prof John Curtice, What Scotland Thinks

Featured image of Nicola Sturgeon at her party conference in Aberdeen via the SNP; Keir Starmer at Labour’s 2020 leadership hustings via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Filed Under: Articles, Elections, Federalism, Politics, UK Tagged With: devolution, Scottish Government, Scottish politics, UK Labour

About James Mitchell

Professor of Public Policy at Edinburgh University. Former member of the Christie Commission and now member of the 'Enabling group' advising Scottish Government and Convention of Scottish Local Authorities on the review of local governance.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Keith Macdonald says

    October 11, 2022 at 1:18 pm

    Prof Mitchell is absolutely right. Labour can win a significant number of seats in Scotland but it is far from certain. We will need a very clear and compelling message for left of centre of voters who currently support the SNP.

    The essence of the SNP argument is that the Tories can be banished forever from the government of Scotland by leaving the UK. Scotland would no longer be affected by even permanent right-wing rule in the UK. This is all summed up in the magic word “independence”.

    This is simply not true since no country is completely independent of other countries and in this case the Scottish economy is integrated into that of the UK. That is the only logic behind the SNP’s messy currency policy.

    In fact, what the SNP propose is a second Brexit. A very difficult divorce followed by endless disputes over things which had once been taken for granted. The effects of the mini-budget are only the most recent example of what would happen.

    Since leaving the UK can be presented as starting with a blank slate, it is easy for the SNP to advocate policies without regard to practicalities. £20bn can be conjured from nowhere to invest in the economy and a generous asylum policy outlined knowing that thousands will not be landing on the shores of the Forth. Joining the vision of endless blue skies and the emotional power of nationalism is a very powerful combination which is difficult to combat.

    We have however the example of how the trick was pulled once – Brexit. That should serve as a flashing alarm for the very similar promises and arguments used by the SNP. All it needs are leaders with the courage to say so.

    Reply
  2. Radio Jammor says

    October 11, 2022 at 1:23 pm

    Perspective: Scotland could have voted for independence before Labour get a sniff of being in number ten.
    And any hope of winning back significant voters will remain remote whilst Labour cosy-up with the Tories in Scotland in both local and national government.
    Labour are not fooling anyone. Labour are only gaining votes in Scotland from the Tories because of being the next nearest to being Tory – with the party stance on Brexit and Scottish independence being broadly the same. Labour really are Tory lite.
    Labour do not offer anything to current SNP or Scot Green voters and are not going to get much if any higher in the polls anytime soon.
    So dream on with the “we’re back” schtick.

    Reply
    • Big Tam says

      October 12, 2022 at 9:53 pm

      The”cosying up” you mention isn’t unique to Lab. the SNP have done the very same with Tories in the past and most parties do the same with each other. It’s just how local government works, and if parties didn’t do this the whole system would collapse.

      What Labour offers is pretty much all the things the SNP say can’t be done without independence.

      Barring any complete surprise like Sturgeon calling it day (as that will be the end of the SNP due to the frighteningly shallow pool of potential successors), its going to take a while for Lab to win back through in Scotland. But a few years of progressive, left of centre govenrnment and the changes to the system, policies and general outlook that Co e with it, and people will start turning their heads and realising that you don’t need a Scexit to do stuff.

      It’s long overdue.

      Reply
  3. Jackie Kemp says

    October 11, 2022 at 1:36 pm

    I think the Labour Party should consider changing their stance over a referendum – there is mandate for one. I think a vote for the Labour Party in Scotland today will be seen by many as first and foremost a vote against self-determination for Scotland.
    And why are they allowing themselves to be pushed into the same position they eventually took in 2015, about ruling out working with the SNP over issues like child poverty? Why would they do that?

    Reply
  4. Stephen McKenzie says

    January 1, 2023 at 10:59 pm

    Hilarious article that Labour are on some sort of roll in Scotland. Yes, I agree that in UK wide context then Labour are in good shape.

    In Scotland, as a previous poster has highlighted they are seen very much as “Tory Lite” or the “Red Tories” if you prefer.

    Again, the Labour vote share in Scotland is improving, but it is at the expense of of the Scottish Tories. They are NOT taking any significant number of SNP voters, if any.

    Reply

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