Few could have foreseen that a young, gay, working-class woman would transform the fortunes of the Conservative party in Scotland when she became leader eight years ago.
But that’s exactly what Ruth Davidson did. Almost singlehandedly, she is responsible for her party’s political revival in Scotland where, crucially, it has eclipsed Labour as the main opposition party.
But following her resignation, citing a combination of personal and political reasons, the Scottish party may be wondering if it can hold on to 13 MPs at Westminster and remain in second place.
Davidson’s decision to quit is a serious blow to the Conservatives. There is no obvious big personality replacement. If you search for Ruth Davidson on the YouGov polling site, you find that 64% of people have heard of her, and she is the fourth most popular Conservative politician at UK level.
If you then search on YouGov for possible leadership contenders such as Davidson’s deputy (and now acting leader) Jackson Carlaw MSP, or Adam Tomkins MSP, the level of recognition is just not there.
Davidson had “atypical” Conservative traits. She was a new and different kind of Conservative leader: young (32 when she took on the role); female; gay; and a former journalist. As well as being described on YouGov as “confident, assured, admirable and commanding”, she was a relaxed, easygoing communicator who could reach the parts of the electorate that other Tories could not.
Difficult questions
While Davidson had hoped to be first minister by 2021, the political and socio-economic shake-down from Brexit under Boris Johnson is likely to lead to a haemorrhaging of support for the Scottish Conservatives. His strategy seems to be to win the Labour Leave heartlands, which might be good news for the Conservatives in England, but looks like being bad news in Scotland.
Indeed, the most promising future for Scottish Conservatives might actually be in an independent Scotland, free from the members of their party pursuing a very different narrative at Westminster.
In the meantime, a relatively unknown Conservative leader might have to think the unthinkable at the next UK General Election. If three unionist parties are competing against one independence party (SNP) for winnable seats at Westminster using first-past-the-post, they might need to make deals and run where they stand most chance of challenging the SNP, and standing down where they will split the union vote.
Undoubtedly Ruth Davidson has left behind very big boots to fill. If Conservative popularity tanks in Scotland the way Labour’s did, we might see a quick succession of leaders. Of course it puts Nicola Sturgeon in an even more commanding position than ever before. But she has now had five years as leader, and leaders are lucky if they can hold on for as long as Davidson has managed – particularly in these unprecedented times of political churn.
First published by The Conversation
William Ross says
Dear Mark
Ruth Davidson like many so other Europhile Tory politicians has just never grasped that the British people voted to Leave the EU. Her government called the referendum, set the rules, and lost. Immediately after the referendum the reins of power in Westminster fell to a Remainer coup. The Remainers have done their level best to implement a humiliating Brexit in name-only ( Withdrawal Agreement) but Theresa May had to resign after the Euro elections of this year. They are now trying to strangle Brexit altogether. We now have our first ever genuine Brexit goverment under Boris Johnson.
Ruth could not live with a real Brexit. In this she follows Cameron. Osborne, May, Hammond, Gauke etc. None of them could accept that “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal”. Without the ability of leveraging No Deal no acceptable deal was ever going to be possible. To try to rule out No Deal is either mind blowing incompetence or else abject duplicity with
the EU.
Writing as a non-Conservative, Ruth is no loss at all. She had no coherent political philosophy. What would you say “Davidsonism” looks like? It was politics by stunt and personality. It was also the politics of pure negativism :”No to Indyref 2″. She was constitutionally reckless in the extreme. Remember(1) post Brexit referendum: UK goverment should not block Section 30 order if voted for by Scottish Parliament,(2) GE 2017 ” Not yet” — brilliant constitutional theory; (3) recently SNP must win absolute majority. What next? Her party has no constitutiuonal theory of what Scotland is.
In the coming UK GE ( pre or post 31 Oct) I doubt that her absence hurts the Tories too much. Brexit will dominate the election and the identity of local Tory politicians will not be that important. At least six of the thirteen Tory seats come from the North East of Scotland where Leave did very well. The Tories should hold these. Another three come from traditional Tory areas in the Borders. Latest polls show Boris winning a majority of over 20 without a deal with the Brexit party. Boris will not need 13 Tory seats from Scotland.
What so many commentators fail to recognise is that assuming Brexit happens on 31 Oct with or without a deal, then in the population`s mind, the EU issue is sorted. Brexit will be the default and a new politics will develop. I wonder if Remainers are really terrified by No Deal because they are afraid that it will only be a bump in the road. Project Fear, one thinks, could not really survive another car crash with the truth. Scotland`s cosy establishment needs to be shaken to its very core.
William