In a couple of weeks’ time the 56 SNP MPs will make the journey to London to vote against their first Queen’s Speech. It will be an exciting occasion for them. Despite the party’s characterisation of Westminster as ‘out of touch’ it will be difficult not to be awed by the pomp and the pageantry of the Mother of Parliaments.

Only seven – the six who were already MPs and Alex Salmond, who has been an MP before – know at first hand what to expect. Many of the rest have no experience of representation at any level and some are new to politics altogether. They will feel a sense of solidarity and that they are fulfilling their manifesto commitment by voting against the renewed austerity which David Cameron believes is his manifesto commitment.

Their leaders will speak in the debate and then the 56 will get their first taste of powerlessness. Cameron has an absolute majority. It is slim, but it will not desert him this early and he may be able to count on the support of the single UKIP MP and the Ulster unionists. He will go into the debate with virtual certainty that he will be able to deliver his first year’s legislative programme whatever the opposition throws against him.

The whole SNP campaign was predicated on the expectation of a hung parliament. They promised to “lock David Cameron out of Downing Street,” their manifesto pledged that they would never put the Tories into power. In the new reality, however complete their victory in Scotland, they count for less than 10% of the 650 votes in the Commons. Even in alliance with all opposition parties —including the Labour Party which they have spent the last few months excoriating — they cannot deny the Government a majority.

The Osborne deficit reduction plan and the proposed £12bn in further welfare cuts will go ahead, as will other policies which the SNP has opposed—the repeal and replacement of the Human Rights Act, renewal of the Trident nuclear system and a referendum on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union. The bedroom tax will continue.

The Prime Minister is basking in the glory of an outright victory achieved against expectations, but when the honeymoon ends it is likely that he will face tensions within his own party. With a Government margin of only 12, backbench Conservative MPs have leverage and Mr Cameron in seeking to resist some of their demands will have to make alliances with other parties.

But the SNP’s outright opposition to the party in power gives them no bargaining chips. After their castigation of Labour for joining with the Tories in the Better Together campaign against independence, they can hardly now be seen walking through the Government voting lobby.

Instead, the Prime Minister is likely to turn to the DUP and the UUP for support. They are closer in ideology, carefully hedged their bets in advance of the General Election and Northern Ireland would be cheaper to buy off than further concessions to Scotland. It is difficult to see how SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon is going to fulfil her promise to give a stronger voice to Scotland and ‘shake up the out of touch Westminster system’ as her party’s manifesto promised.

The unfinished business of the last parliament is, of course, the legislation to give effect to the Smith proposals for further devolution, agreed by all parties, including the SNP, after the decisive No vote in last year’s referendum. The nationalists have already complained that the draft clauses ‘water down’ the agreed measures and give UK ministers a veto over decisions of the Scottish Parliament. These criticisms were denied by the coalition government and are likely to be denied by this Tory Government too.

Ms Sturgeon has already signalled her determination to go further, citing the SNP landslide as a mandate to demand more powers on tax and welfare, among other policy areas. This will be an early test of strength.

If Mr Cameron decides that he has fulfilled his obligations under ‘The Vow’ and that he has more pressing matters to attend to (renegotiating Britain’s relationship with Europe, for example) there is little the SNP can do other than make noise and stage a few parliamentary stunts. They will struggle to find cross-party support beyond the three Plaid Cyrmu MPs and possibly the single Green.

There is practically no downside for the Prime Minster in shunning SNP demands. His party can hardly sink lower in Scotland and has no hope of gaining power in the Scottish Parliament.

This post first appeared in the Director’s blog of the David Hume Institute website.