The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) put is it as well as anyone. “Today’s Budget locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates. Even the historically large tax share of GDP now planned is only just enough to stabilise – not reduce – a debt ratio stuck around 100 per cent of GDP for the … [Read more...] about UK Budget 2025? Get real. The world has changed
UK Government
Insurgent, disruptive or flailing Labour?
When key Labour advisers, and the prime minister himself, are throwing around consultancy-speak words like disruption and insurgency then it’s clear the government has a deep problem. It doesn’t actually know what it's there for, let alone how to be popular – and the feeble, ever narrower repetition of the word ‘growth’, as growth stalls, is not helping. Keir Starmer told his … [Read more...] about Insurgent, disruptive or flailing Labour?
Ending child poverty – hard facts vs empty promises
The recent political manoeuvring around abolishing the cap for some families on benefits has brought the issue of child poverty back to the fore. The Labour Party is setting up a Child Poverty Taskforce to look into the matter and there is pressure from within and without to do something in the October Budget. Meanwhile, John Swinney is well ahead of the pack, claiming, on his … [Read more...] about Ending child poverty – hard facts vs empty promises
Starmer can’t afford to be cautious
Two fears should haunt Labour this coming year and how it responds will determine the size of its majority and its ability to govern effectively. Labour fears another defeat and this inclines it to be ultra-cautious. It should also fear having to govern an economy and society in need of bold action. Managing the competing demands of caution and boldness will be a major theme … [Read more...] about Starmer can’t afford to be cautious
Can muscular unionism save the Union?
The phrase ‘muscular unionism’ is new but the concept is not. As Prime Minister, Boris Johnson called Scottish devolution ‘a disaster north of the border’. Liz Truss said while campaigning for the Conservative leadership that she would ‘ignore’ the ‘attention seeker’, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. She was true to her word, never contacting Sturgeon or Mark Drakeford, First … [Read more...] about Can muscular unionism save the Union?