“There’s growing agreement on the need for an industrial strategy in Scotland. The immediate question for the SNP government in Scotland and the next government in London is whether they are prepared to expend the time and energy to deliver one, now. Yousaf has started an important debate: we hope to see positive and practical action over the coming months to turn a debating point into reality.”
scottish economy
Scottish economy outperforming the UK but for how long?
Looking forward to the Scottish Budget on Dec 19, the FAI says: “With monetary policy determined at UK level and little in the way of manoeuvre on its own fiscal stance, the Deputy First Minister’s decisions will need to deliver a budget that takes all these constraints into account, and some large parts of her funding are already determined – especially as it pertains to the Block Grant.”
What does the Autumn Statement mean for Scotland?
“As these are devolved matters, the Scottish Government receives this funding but is under no obligation to match the policies announced by Westminster. For example, the retail, hospitality and leisure relief is a repeat of the measure for 2023-24, which the Scottish Government decided not to pass on and spent elsewhere. So this is one to watch out for at next month’s Scottish Budget.”
GERS 2023: uptick in oil revenues narrows the budget deficit
“And here the challenge is stark, with a likely deficit far in excess of the UK as a whole, other comparable countries or that which is deemed to be sustainable in the long-term. It is not enough to say ‘everything will be fine’ or ‘look at this country, they can run a sensible fiscal balance so why can’t Scotland?’. Concrete proposals and ideas are needed.”
What does Hunt’s first Budget mean for Scotland? (Update)
“The £320 million of money coming to Scotland mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech is for 2023-24 and 2024-25, but that’s all we’ve been told. Given that these figures will have been worked out in advance, there is surely no reason why these figures can’t be released in full at the same time as the rest of the Budget documents.”
Prospects for future fiscal devolution?
“Are current fiscal powers optimal for managing day-to-day and longer-term risks? And do the devolved administrations have the right tools to manage the financial risks they are likely to face now and in the future?”
Swinney should use his fiscal powers to the full: Update
“But there are also flexibilities that the Deputy First Minister has for the next financial year that were not available to him for this year – the Scottish Government does have tax powers that could be used, if he wishes, to raise more revenue.” FAI sets the scene for Thursday’s Scottish Budget
A monetary straitjacket: Scottish Government economic plan for independence
“A Scottish currency is no guarantee that independence would see the country’s deeply embedded economic problems tackled. A monetarily sovereign independent government would still be perfectly capable of chronic mismanagement. But to have an independent country with a fighting chance of making even partial economic and social progress, monetary sovereignty is a pre-requisite. Another Scotland is still possible.”
Fantasy economics: alive and well on both sides of the border
“Where Scotland differs (from the UK) the most is in its lack of engagement on economic issues. If this continues then the £1.5 billion (fiscal) shortfall will continue to grow and taxes will continue to rise to compensate. Surely no-one wants this but then why does no one take it seriously?” asks John McLaren in his latest acute commentary on the state of the Scottish economy.
Going for growth – or broke?
The new UK Chancellor has set out his radical fiscal plans – and prompted a sterling crisis. The situation is so grave, not least for Scotland, it merits a return from us in the interests of a wider public policy debate. Here we republish commentary from the FAI – and expect to run further contributions this autumn.