‘Although lying mid-table, Scotland can still be viewed as a relatively prosperous OECD nation. This ranking is likely to apply regardless of whether Scotland is part of the UK or independent. However, independence would still pose questions over how to reduce Scotland’s relatively large fiscal deficit.’
Javid and the Scottish budget
‘Unprotected areas of the Scottish budget should avoid real terms cuts in 2020/21, but they should not expect a spending bonanza.’ Latest FAI analysis…
The GERS divide
‘We can hope that any future constitutional debate considers these long-term issues more seriously, preferably in an open and respectful way – although evidence from the annual GERS furore suggests that this may be a little too much to ask for.’
GERS 2019 and indyref2
‘The comment by the Scottish Finance Secretary at the time of publication that “Scotland’s economy and public finances are strong” seems fanciful given any reasonable analysis of recent low economic growth figures and a still high, by international standards, fiscal deficit.’
GERS 2019….Days 1 and 2
‘Much more could be done by government to defend these statistics and proactively clear-up misunderstandings.’
Devo 20 and the economy
‘If Scotland is to meet the challenges of the next decade and beyond – and take advantage of the undoubted opportunities that will arise – it is likely to require a much bolder economic policy agenda’
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MSPs miss the bigger picture
MSPs on finance committee debate the Scottish Budget: ‘Coming in the midst of the parliament’s 20th anniversary celebrations, this was not a good advert for parliamentary effectiveness in holding the government to account’.
What does the recent failure to improve Scotland’s productivity ranking tell us?
‘All in all, great care needs to be applied when making judgments comparing national productivity levels. As a result, choosing a shift in international rankings as a government policy target is probably unwise.’
Indyref2 and the economic fundamentals
‘Underlying (onshore) economic and fiscal fundamentals are little different now to at the time of the first referendum. Economic debate around any second referendum is therefore likely to concentrate on: productivity growth prospects; how to narrow Scotland’s fiscal deficit; and how to improve the Current Account.’
Scotland needs its own currency
‘Post-independence, your plan makes as much political and economic sense as unilaterally adopting changes to the financial regulations of Singapore.’