Last month, the ESRC-supported project “UK in a Changing Europe” issued a new report on the economic and political effects for the UK of a No Deal.This project uses a collection of experts in law, politics and economics drawn from across the UK. Its members were selected on merit, not on their support or otherwise for Brexit. They had written extensively about trade, … [Read more...] about Impact of Brexit “no deal” on Scotland
Scottish industry
GERS – Responsibility, Responsibility, Responsibility
I confess that I find the annual GERS debate both compelling and frustrating. Politicians and journalists seem to struggle to make sense of what the figures say, so we are reduced to soundbites from politicians and uninformed point scoring from the media.And then, out of the blue last year, like the first sign of spring, there was a modest improvement in the quality of the … [Read more...] about GERS – Responsibility, Responsibility, Responsibility
GERS and the Scottish Budget
The GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue) report shows a net fiscal balance (including a geographical share of North Sea oil) in Scotland of -£13.4bn or -7.9% of Scottish GDP for 2017-18. This compares with a UK balance of -£39.4bn or -1.9% of UK GDP.This is an improvement on the figures for 2016-17 where Scotland’s fiscal balance was -8.9%.The main reason for the … [Read more...] about GERS and the Scottish Budget
Scottish business and Brexit
The last month has been a tumultuous time in the Brexit negotiations following the publication of the Prime Minister’s Chequers plan and the subsequent resignation of senior UK Ministers.To help understand how businesses in Scotland are viewing recent developments, over the course of July we have been speaking to around 350 businesses from across the country (and from a … [Read more...] about Scottish business and Brexit
Optimism returning to North Sea
The price of a barrel of oil has been rising steadily in recent months.Whilst prices have slipped back a little – in the light of OPEC’s apparent plan to relax their recent self-imposed constraints on supply – oil prices continue to hover close to their highest level in three years.The recent increase has helped to provide a boost for contractors and operators in the … [Read more...] about Optimism returning to North Sea