The SNP MPs who walked out of the House of Commons on Wednesday, were not just demonstrating their opposition to Westminster’s “power grab” of devolved powers in the EU Withdrawal bill.
They were also expressing a wider anger at the disregard for Scotland across the Brexit process. The walk-out has proved popular in Scotland – both in media commentary and in several thousand new members signing up to the SNP.
Scotland voted 62% for Remain in 2016. Yet the impact of Brexit on the devolution settlement for the constituent parts of the UK has barely registered in the debates – especially considering two of the four, Scotland and Northern Ireland, didn’t vote for it.
The Scottish government, led by Nicola Sturgeon, has pushed for a “supersoft” Brexit as the least worst option for the UK, staying in both the customs union and single market. But consultation of Scotland on the future UK-EU relationship, including on the postponed White Paper, has been minimal.
Yet there is frustration in several quarters in Scotland, including some in the SNP, that Nicola Sturgeon has not been bolder on Brexit – and a campaign to keep Scotland in the EU has been launched recently. While Sturgeon pays lip-service to staying in the EU, she emphasises much more her “soft” Brexit goal.
In part, this reflects a nervousness about those independence supporters who voted for Leave – about a quarter to a third of SNP voters. There is also a lack of confidence about how the SNP can influence the UK debate, despite being the third party at Westminster. There is a view that it’s not for the Scottish government or SNP to tell the English how to vote – not wanting to set any precedents when and if there’s another independence vote.
Yet the walk-out by SNP MPs this week suggests bold moves can have an impact.
Nicola Sturgeon has, so far, been reluctant to endorse a people’s vote. She has moved only slightly, from suggesting this January that another vote “may become irresistible” to stating in May: “It’s not the SNP that’s going to be a block if there is second referendum on the EU issue.”
Blaming Labour, while sitting on your hands over contesting Brexit and demanding a people’s vote, is neither bold nor a leadership stance. Some suggest this is “strategic passivity” – waiting for Brexit to get worse as Tory infighting deepens. But others argue it’s time Sturgeon spoke out more strongly against Brexit.
In recent months, the independence debate in Scotland has become more energised. That may lead Sturgeon to carry on sitting it out on Brexit, with the exception of the devolution “power grab” issue. But Brexit is seriously damaging to Scotland – independent or not. What’s more, the prospect of a hard border between Scotland and England brought by a hard Brexit (if an independent Scotland was in the EU or EEA) will not make winning an independence vote easier.
A strong stance from the SNP on a people’s vote does not yet look likely. If Labour found its nerve on this, the SNP, it seems, would follow not lead. The big challenge on Brexit for the Scottish government is whether it can find its nerve on Brexit, as its MPs at Westminster have done, and lead not follow.
First published by InFacts
William Ross says
Kirsty
I am really not sure why we need a “People`s” vote on Brexit as we had a “People`s” vote on 23 June 2016? Scotland, as it happened voted for the UK “to remain”. I just want the government to get on with implementing the real ” People`s” vote.
But put all that aside and think of it from the standpoint of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Their goal of an independent Scotland can only be achieved by an Independence referendum. If the SNP even so much as supports your presumptuous ” People`s” vote that would create an unanswerable precedent for there having to be a [second] confirmatory referendum when the terms for Scottish independence are clear. After all, Indy ref 2 could also be won by a 52 to 48% margin. How would that go down with the YES troops?
Not even the current SNP leadership is mad enough to make a mistake like that. If they did it would just show that their real goal is not Scottish independence at all.
William
John Smith says
‘Use’s majority voting REMAIN percentage to show why Scotland deserves to stay in the EU’
‘Says there should be another vote while ignoring the majority voting LEAVE percentage in the UK’
These people….
Alison Hunter says
As Kirsty points out Scotland voted to remain in the EU. The SNP manifesto – on which they were voted in – states clearly that a second independence referendum could be on the cards in circumstances such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. Scotland did not vote for a soft Brexit or indeed any kind of Brexit and should therefore be given the opportunity to vote for Independence. The legality of the vote to leave the EU is under question at the moment, given the tactics employed by VoteLeave. . This does raise grave concerns about its legitimacy. I am however not hopeful that the vote will be overturned. The Brexit argument for Scotland is, in my view, best settled by an Independence Referendum. If Scotland does not vote for Indy it must follow the path to Brexit (which looks increasingly like no deal never mind a soft Brexit). If it does vote for Indy, the next stop would be a vote for EU membership. And then the path to accession. I am personally in favour of, and confident that, Scotland would vote for Indy and EU membership and, indeed, look forward to the day we take our place as committed members of the European family of nations.