The post mortem over Labour’s election defeat began as soon as the first exit poll emerged on May 7 and continues. Some commentators believe the party is a corpse that cannot be resuscitated – especially in Scotland. Others argue that, with a new leader, it should “return to its socialist roots”, “track back to the Blairite centre ground,” “reinvent itself as a European social democratic party”… A German SPD thinker offers his (initial) view:

1. Labour was too late in revealing the economic myths of the crisis and the ‘economic recovery’

One moment during the election campaign was revealing – there was a gasp in the audience during the final leaders TV programme when Ed Miliband said he did not believe that the last Labour government spent too much. Of course Labour did not spent too much as several economists such as Simon Wren-Lewis explained. But Labour was simply far too late in challenging this argument! The wrong perception that ‘Labour wrecked the economy’ and that the ‘Tories had to clean up the mess’ had been established for five years and it was just too late to set the record straight. Labour did better in exposing the wrong ‘economic recovery’ argument but against the backdrop of the ‘Labour mess’ perception this was too little too late.

2. Labour’s political message was too left-wing

The idea, already uttered on TV screens, that the general policy propositions of Labour were too left-wing is also wrong. Labour’s wipeout in Scotland at the hand of the ‘end austerity’ SNP simply cannot be explained by the ‘too left-wing’ argument. And in several places in England (some places in the north and London in particular) Labour strengthened its support. Labour did poorly in many of the key marginal seats in England and was always unlikely to compensate for the massive losses in Scotland once the sheer scale of the swing became apparent. One can criticise Labour’s politics as not aspirational and future-oriented enough, that is a fair point. But simply saying Labour’s manifesto was too left-wing is too easy in my view. So what went wrong?

3. Negative campaigning works (to an extent)

Labour was crushed between two forms of nationalism that will dominate the shape of British politics for years to come. You might not win overall majorities with negative campaigning but if the decisive impact comes from Middle England marginal constituencies you can target these specific voters under the conditions of Scottish nationalism with a scare campaign rather than an aspirational message. I think this is exactly what the Tories did by publishing an English manifesto and creating the scarecrow of a puppet Labour government directed by the left-wing nationalists from Scotland. This would explain the late surge towards the Tories that went undetected in the polls before the election. There was enough fear of uncertainty in specific quarters to avoid a vote for change.

4. The job ahead will be very hard for Labour

Labour will have to finally set the crisis record straight and challenge the story that Labour caused it. It will have to come up with a more aspirational policy agenda that addresses the problems that Ed Miliband rightly highlighted and has at least potentially the scope to heal the widening rift between Scotland and England in particular. This nationalist divide will be further increased by the discussion about Brexit that will invariably start now that a referendum is on the cards (probably earlier than 2017 in my view).

What was reveled today has not happened over night. The Labour erosion in Scotland has been going on for years and just trying to win over Middle England – as Tony Blair did – has first of all helped to bring the erosion north of the border about and second of all will not be enough in the new political context. Even if Labour had won all seats in Scotland it would still be far away from a majority. Likewise English marginal seats without Scotland almost certainly can’t deliver a Labour majority.

The challenge for Labour is to reinvent itself as the last remaining UK-wide party. It needs a reinvigorated progressive vision with a much clearer aspirational narrative that unites nations that are clearly drifting apart. It is a formidable challenge!