{"id":4529,"date":"2017-01-05T11:16:57","date_gmt":"2017-01-05T11:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=4529"},"modified":"2025-12-27T12:30:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T12:30:23","slug":"sturgeons-confederal-brexit-solution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2017\/01\/sturgeons-confederal-brexit-solution\/","title":{"rendered":"Sturgeon’s confederal Brexit solution"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The publication of the Scottish government\u2019s policy paper<\/a> on Brexit, Scotland\u2019s Place in Europe, may signal something of a change in tone from the SNP leadership. Reading it, one can only conclude that last thing Nicola Sturgeon wants is an independence referendum.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly Sturgeon\u2019s tone contrasts with the noises off from Alex Salmond<\/a>, who has been energetically laying the groundwork for a rerun of 2014, or some of Scottish government Brexit minister Mike Russell\u2019s earlier rhetoric. It is still possible to conclude from the paper and the logic of the SNP\u2019s argument that, if they don\u2019t get the concessions they hope, then they will be demanding another independence referendum. But the big message from the paper and its presentation is not bullying language about when a referendum might be called: it is that the SNP don\u2019t think leaving the EU justifies repeating the independence poll at all. Instead they are setting out ways the UK can leave the EU without one. Can the UK stay in or near the single market, or at least can Scotland? If it can the UK leaves the EU, but the SNP won\u2019t find themselves demanding \u2018indyref2\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Responses from Unionists<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Opponents of independence can respond in different ways. It\u2019s easy enough to mock. Many, supporters and opponents alike, will say it\u2019s fear. Maybe fear of losing \u2013 two-thirds of voters don\u2019t want yet another poll<\/a>, and independence support is where it was in 2014<\/a>. Around 400,000 nationalists seem to dislike the EU as much as the UK<\/a>  and might not vote to leave the UK just to join the EU again. So despite what Alex Salmond says, the prospects of another referendum are not hopeful for the SNP and a second defeat would surely be fatal to the cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others will say it\u2019s fear of winning: senior nationalists know they don\u2019t have an economic plan. The takeaway message from the 2014 campaign was that the economics of independence were unsustainable. They have got much worse since, and Brexit adds a scary new dimension of uncertainty<\/a>. Without a wholly new economic vision, all they have to offer is a plan everyone knows won\u2019t work. Influential figures in the nationalist movement have been arguing this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others still prefer to see nationalists as Bertie Wooster saw aunts \u2013 \u2018It is no use telling me that there are bad aunts and good aunts. At the core, they are all alike. Sooner or later, out pops the cloven hoof.\u2019 They detect only maneuvering towards another referendum sometime in the next few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Searching for a sustainable solution?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is perhaps some truth in all these responses. The SNP want to keep their options open and the contradictory messages are the result. But despite the noises off, it might be that in her own way Nicola Sturgeon is searching about for a sustainable solution for Scotland inside a post-Brexit UK. She hasn\u2019t lost her faith, but independence is for another day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some on the pro-UK side of the argument want to encourage the cautious, pragmatic streak in the First Minister. It may help her avoid painting herself into the corner of a referendum she doesn\u2019t really want. More important, it might just move Scottish constitutional debate away from the constant question of rerunning 2014 and onto looking for way in which most Scots can be content with the constitutional arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly, as I have argued elsewhere<\/a> Sturgeon is right to argue the UK should keep as close as possible to the EU single market. It is looking increasingly as if she might just get her way, at least to start with. As the Brexiteers in the UK cabinet continue to fantasise about the world of their imagination, pragmatists like the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, are stepping forward. They understand the reality of deal-making with 27 increasingly impatient member states. They hear business calling out the economic self-harm from putting up barriers to the UK\u2019s largest market. It has become clearer in the last ten days what is potentially on the cards: a transitional period<\/a>, inside the Customs Union with single market access in some form. With it will inevitably come freedom of movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A special deal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sturgeon is also arguing for a special European deal for Scotland within the UK. Her idea is that Scotland should remain in the single market even if the UK leaves. Despite some detailed argument in the paper about the position of Liechtenstein and the Channel Islands, that specific proposition is simply not practical, for business or anyone else, as the Scottish government must realise. Their own advisors say so<\/a>. The single market is a bundle of rules regulating goods and services. Where those rules apply both can be traded freely: where they end, they can\u2019t, and there is a barrier to trade. Putting that barrier at Berwick would mean economic separation from the UK. England would be a different market from Scotland, and Scottish trade, and jobs, would inevitably suffer. UK trade matters much more for Scotland\u2019s economy than EU trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That plan won\u2019t work, and it would be a mistake for Sturgeon to make it a hard test for Theresa May to fail, because there are other ways to recognise Scotland\u2019s difference that will work. Brexit inevitably makes Holyrood much more powerful. It will negotiate as an equal with Westminster on things like agriculture and fisheries. The internal balance of the UK will be shifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It can shift more<\/a>. There is no reason to deny Holyrood the power to negotiate with Brussels too \u2013 on all devolved matters. Devolution means Scotland can make different choices over things that don\u2019t have to be reserved to Westminster. Why shouldn\u2019t it be able to agree, say, reciprocal health deals with European countries, or access to EU studentships for young people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, if the UK ever does move to a system of work permits to control migration, permits to live and work north of the border could be issued in Edinburgh \u2013 and the same for Belfast, or London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Scottish government know these possibilities exist. Indeed they go out of their way in the paper to acknowledge them \u2013 and even to source them to Gordon Brown. Interestingly, by journalistic accounts<\/a>, repeating referendum rhetoric has had a formulaic air to it. Their priority instead should be helping UK ministers understand  that a special Scottish relationship with Europe is not just possible, but an opportunity to refashion the Scotland-UK relationship for the better. Those who want Scotland to stay in the UK should do the same. So far, Theresa May is in listening mode only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Confederating the UK?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Changes like these will profoundly alter the nature of the UK, making it more differentiated, or, as I prefer, more confederal. In truth, that\u2019s the constitutional deal the vast majority in Scotland actually want as surveys have repeatedly shown<\/a>. More independence, but not complete separation; economic and social solidarity, but the scope to make quite different choices, even over things as important as European relationships. At heart, one wonders, do SNP leaders want this too? Their vision of independence last time round had more unions than the TUC \u2013 whether the monarchy, the currency or even some of the BBC. Nobody planned it this way, but Brexit makes that paradoxical phrase \u2018independence inside the UK\u2019 more plausible than it was in 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when the First Minister puts another referendum at the end of the queue of options, she disappoints her fundamentalist supporters. Hence the noises off. Maybe, like Theresa May, she\u2019s gradually realising that what party zealots want and the country needs are not the same. So perhaps her opponents should not be mocking her political incoherence, but encouraging her to edge closer towards a solution the majority of Scots might sign up for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This version published by the LSE Brexit blog<\/a> and reproduced with permission<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Image courtesy of Scottish Government CC BY-SA 2.0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Maybe, like Theresa May, she\u2019s (Nicola Sturgeon) gradually realising that what party zealots want and the country needs are not the same. So perhaps her opponents should not be mocking her political incoherence, but encouraging her to edge closer towards a solution the majority of Scots might sign up for.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":4534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[125],"tags":[122,31,708],"class_list":["post-4529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-brexit","tag-eu-referendum","tag-indyref-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4529"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4529\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17931,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4529\/revisions\/17931"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}