{"id":3631,"date":"2016-07-11T07:00:22","date_gmt":"2016-07-11T07:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=3631"},"modified":"2025-12-27T12:57:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T12:57:16","slug":"scotland-can-lead-debate-on-uks-post-eu-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2016\/07\/scotland-can-lead-debate-on-uks-post-eu-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotland can lead debate on UK’s post-EU future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Two weeks ago Britain embarked on the path of leaving the European Union on the say so of just over a third of the electorate. We are now in the process of getting a new Prime Minister on the decision of just 150,000 Conservative Party members.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the winner of that contest chooses to interpret and act on the referendum result we do not really know; neither candidate \u2014Theresa May nor Andrea Leadsom \u2014 has outlined her position. So far the campaign has been (at best) on the grounds of experience versus change, or (at worst) on personal insult flung by supporters of the candidates \u2014\u201cshe has no children\u201d from one side, \u201cshe inflated her CV\u201d from the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a danger in appealing to such a narrow electorate in order to secure the premiership. Tory party activists are not typical, they tend to be older, richer and more right wing than the average voter \u2014 and more antagonistic towards the EU. The temptation for both candidates will be to tell the members what they want to hear, rather than setting out a balanced way forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaving the EU is not an event which can be reversed at the next election and the manner in which we leave and the terms of our future relationship could affect our prosperity and security for generations to come. Decisions taken in the next few months or years will have a profound influence on our future. Yet the vast majority of voters may get no say over them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The winner need not subject herself to a general election. The Fixed Term Parliament Act, passed by the 2010-15 coalition government, means that the new leader need not go to the country for another four years. The only way of forcing an unpopular Prime Minister out of office is for two-thirds of MPs to support a motion of no confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other circumstances that would be a very high hurdle to clear. However, these are not normal times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No return to normal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mrs Leadsom has gone into the Tory leadership contest with the support of only a minority of Tory MPs. It is possible that, were she to win by appealing to the activist \u201cleave\u201d majority in her own party and then pursue a \u201cgo it alone\u201d strategy which threatened to take the UK out of the single market, she could lose a no confidence vote in the Commons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that would plunge the country into further uncertainty and division at a time when we need unity and a clear vision of what future we want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How could we achieve it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Scottish Government has a clear position, even if it is less clear about how it can be achieved. It wants Scotland to continue to be a member of the EU and, in the absence of any alternative future offered by the UK Government, it is right to stick to that aim. There is not a lot the First Minister can do, but at least by flying to Brussels soon after the vote, she broadcast her intention to our European partners and did the UK some good by demonstrating that not everyone feels the same way about the Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SNP\u2019s default reaction to any major problem is to set up a council of advisers. We have one for the economy and one for education, now we have one on Europe. It is populated with experts in diplomacy, economics, science, constitutional law and trade, but too big to be a decision-making body. However, again, it is at least a clear signal of intention. The First Minister is surrounding herself with people who support her policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her talks with the Mayor of London were also a positive step. But making common cause with the other nations of the UK may prove more difficult. Nicola Sturgeon and Sadiq Khan were in tune with their own electorates, whereas the leaders of Wales and Northern Ireland were not. Carwyn Jones campaigned for \u201cremain\u201d but Wales voted \u201cleave,\u201d whereas in Ulster the reverse was the case, with Arlene Foster out of step with the \u201cremain\u201d vote there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Britain needs a national debate on its future. It cannot be left to one political party. Could that debate be started in Scotland? Perhaps, but it will need an admission that, for the near future at least, we may have to settle for second best \u2014 not full membership of the EU, but a status giving as many of the benefits of membership as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This post first appeared at the David Hume Institute<\/a> site and is reproduced with <\/em>permission<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UK has voted to leave the UK, a decision unlikely to be reversed any time soon. Nicola Sturgeon, however, wants to keep Scotland in that union at least; her position is clear but her journey to the goal less so. Even so, Scotland can, in the absence of leadership at Westminster, lead the post-Brexit debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[125],"tags":[31,30],"class_list":["post-3631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-eu-referendum","tag-europe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3631"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18023,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3631\/revisions\/18023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}