{"id":19065,"date":"2026-04-10T08:21:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T08:21:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/?p=17888"},"modified":"2026-04-10T08:21:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T08:21:05","slug":"whats-good-for-scotland-in-2026-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2026\/04\/whats-good-for-scotland-in-2026-election\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s ‘good for Scotland’ in 2026 election?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Why is John Swinney talking about a second referendum?\u00a0 Professor James Mitchell takes a long view of the incumbent party’s election campaign.<\/p>\n

<\/blockquote>\n

The Scottish Sun\u2019s Chris Musson suggested that this election could see a \u2018loveless landslide\u2019 for the SNP.\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0This lovelessness might have been explained by the mounting challenges that will face the incoming Scottish Government except that these challenges have barely featured in the campaign so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The rehash of old arguments, unsustainable promises and demands for another independence referendum were never likely to make for an inspiring election.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP\u2019s attempt to resurrect the 1970s with a variant of\u00a0It\u2019s Scotland\u2019s oil<\/em>\u00a0is opportunistic but uninspiring and unconvincing.\u00a0\u00a0This is far from the first time the SNP has tried such a resurrection.\u00a0\u00a0On a previous occasion, my late colleague and SNP expert Jack Brand simply responded, \u2018Proverbs 26:11\u2019. *<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite having access to far greater resources, the SNP\u2019s energy campaign is poor compared to the panache or expertise of half a century ago.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP has no staff today of the calibre of Donald Bain, its talented researcher back then who went on to a distinguished career in European energy policy, or Stephen Maxwell who positively encouraged challenging questions.\u00a0\u00a0Today\u2019s SNP staff exist to protect the leadership rather than make a spirited and informed case for change.<\/p>\n

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Party leaders have learned from David Cameron\u2019s cocksure self-belief \u2013 referendums do not always go as expected.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

John Swinney must know there is little chance of another independence referendum in 2028.\u00a0\u00a0He has at least been careful to say there \u2018could\u2019 be a referendum by 2028.\u00a0\u00a0The most likely scenario was suggested recently by John Curtice.\u00a0\u00a0A deal might be done if Labour needed SNP support in the Commons after the next UK election.\u00a0\u00a0This is possible but far from likely.\u00a0\u00a0If the SNP vote is down as much as polls suggest then it would have a weaker mandate to demand a referendum than at any time since it first came to office.\u00a0\u00a0If the SNP holds the balance of power in the Commons, it would not hold all the cards.\u00a0\u00a0It would likely be in competition with other minority parties.\u00a0\u00a0The Scottish public, let alone British parties, show little appetite for another referendum.\u00a0\u00a0Party leaders have learned from David Cameron\u2019s cocksure self-belief \u2013 referendums do not always go as expected.<\/p>\n

No fit state<\/h2>\n

There are other reasons to doubt the SNP\u2019s bluster on another referendum.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP is in no fit state to fight a referendum.\u00a0\u00a0It has not begun to address weaknesses exposed in 2014.\u00a0\u00a0In contrast, its opponents have learned a lot from the 2014 experience, and we would expect a much improved, more populist campaign from the SNP\u2019s opponents.\u00a0\u00a0Divisions in the Yes campaign were kept under wraps last time but are now fully exposed and show no signs of healing.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP leadership called all the shots last time but that would not happen next time.\u00a0\u00a0Additionally, the SNP now fails to attract the level of support from business and has managed to make enemies of former business friends who funded the last Yes campaign.<\/p>\n

So why does John Swinney demand another referendum?\u00a0\u00a0The SNP has always had two bodies of support.\u00a0\u00a0The first consisted of those who agree with its constitutional objective.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP would have been stuck with around 20% of the vote without additional support in 2007.\u00a0\u00a0Before devolution, the second body of support included those who saw the SNP as \u2018good for Scotland,\u2019 a slogan well used by the party.\u00a0\u00a0Even voters disinclined to vote for it thought the SNP was good for Scotland in some vague sense.<\/p>\n

The SNP needed more than support for independence and some sense that the party was \u2018good for Scotland\u2019 to convince voters to put it into office post-devolution.\u00a0\u00a0It needed to convince enough voters that it would be competent in office, avoid picking needless fights with London and not pursue its constitutional goal at the expense of all else.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP squeaked into office in 2007 by convincing just enough voters that it would be competent and respectable though much potential support was still unconvinced.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

A shrinking core<\/h2>\n

Being in government gave the nationalists the opportunity to remove the fear that held back potential support.\u00a0\u00a0It did not take much to appear competent when opponents had lowered expectations they had with dire predictions.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP experienced a major bounce when its opponents\u2019 warnings were disproved.\u00a0\u00a0The 2011 overall majority was not based on increased support for independence, which flatlined during the SNP Minority Government, but a perception that the SNP in office was competent and stood up for Scotland.<\/p>\n

But over time the party has suffered as the hollowness of its promises have become obvious.\u00a0\u00a0It has come to rely increasingly on its core support.\u00a0\u00a0It has the good fortunate that the core independence support increased significantly during the referendum giving it a major post-referendum bounce.\u00a0\u00a0But how high and how stable is this core independence support?<\/p>\n

What is clear is that this core is not as large as many assume.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP has seen a significant drop in support over this Parliament amongst those who may not have been keen on independence but had previously thought the SNP was good for Scotland and\/or competent.\u00a0\u00a0Hence the need to shore up that core vote.\u00a0\u00a0The core independence vote is now crucial as the SNP\u2019s reputation for competence has taken a tumble.<\/p>\n

John Swinney has no doubt calculated, not without reason, that the SNP can remain Holyrood\u2019s largest party with under 40% of the vote so long as the opposition is fragmented.\u00a0\u00a0Whatever the ethics of Swinney talking up the extent of Scottish report for Reform, it made electoral sense.\u00a0\u00a0It may not have worked in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election but it remains key to the SNP strategy in this election.\u00a0\u00a0Malcolm Offord\u2019s chances of becoming First Minister are fanciful.\u00a0\u00a0But Reform has the potential to be disruptive to the great advantage of the SNP.<\/p>\n

New Green competition \u2013 nationalist and less green<\/h2>\n

But if the polls are to be believed the SNP is polling well below support for independence.\u00a0\u00a0This suggests it is unable to retain support of its base.\u00a0\u00a0There are a number of plausible explanations.\u00a0\u00a0First, the SNP no longer has a monopoly of independence support.\u00a0\u00a0The Greens have been transformed into a nationalist party and have downgraded their green credentials.\u00a0\u00a0It might be logical for the SNP to allow the Greens a free run in the regional lists but not so long ago that would have been dangerous, and may yet be, for the SNP.\u00a0\u00a0The SNP could only afford to gift List seats to the Greens if it was certain to win big in constituencies.\u00a0\u00a0That may yet happen but was far from clear not so long ago and it would be a big gamble now.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A second more likely explanation is that the headline polls on independence hide a less solid base of support.\u00a0\u00a0Core independence support may well be some way below the headline figures.\u00a0\u00a0Polling suggests that most Scots, including many who tell pollsters that they support independence, are not keen on another referendum any time soon.\u00a0\u00a0The extent to which many of these people would actually support independence cannot be known.\u00a0\u00a0It is easy to indicate support for a faraway hypothetical as a means of registering dissatisfaction.\u00a0\u00a0What is clear is that the aim of consistently hitting 60+% as the point when pressure would be applied for a referendum by the nationalists was never achieved and has been quietly forgotten.<\/p>\n

There is little danger of an opposition leader offering to \u2018bring it on,\u2019 as Wendy Alexander did in 2008 which, had it happened, would likely have resulted in a much more decisive defeat for independence than occurred six years later.\u00a0\u00a0A referendum would be a massive gamble for each side.\u00a0\u00a0But talking up another referendum avoids its lamentable record in office or the challenges that will have to be faced at some point.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

*\u2018Proverbs 26:11\u2019\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly. (21C King James version)<\/p>\n

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  • Feature image: Sunrise over the follies on Calton Hill, Edinburgh CC by SA 2.0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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