{"id":19034,"date":"2026-01-23T12:02:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:02:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/?p=17632"},"modified":"2026-01-23T12:02:51","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:02:51","slug":"trumps-tariffs-who-pays-the-cost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2026\/01\/trumps-tariffs-who-pays-the-cost\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s tariffs: who pays the cost?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n

‘Rural voters supported Trump for his anti-elite rhetoric, expecting protection for their livelihoods. Instead, the administration\u2019s actions have hollowed out local workforces without viable alternatives.’\u00a0 In a week when all eyes were on Trump (as he intended), Sceptical Scot publishes this view from The Conversation where Inderjeet Parmar<\/span><\/a> outlines how Trump’s policies are hurting his MAGA rural base. (Does this have lessons for populists closer to home?)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

As Donald Trump\u2019s second term unfolds<\/strong>, the contradictions at the heart of his \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda are increasingly apparent. What began as a populist revolt against elite globalism appears to have morphed into policies that alienate the very rural and small-town constituencies that backed him in 2016, 2020 and 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These rust-belt and rural counties were drawn to his promises of economic revival, border security and non-interventionism. Yet, emerging signs of fracture in this Maga base suggest a potential backlash in the upcoming midterms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration\u2019s domestic policies<\/a>, coupled with aggressive foreign postures, are accelerating disillusionment among Trump\u2019s core supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestically, Trump\u2019s intensified immigration enforcement has backfired<\/a>. Ramped-up ICE raids were sold as fulfilling pledges of mass deportations targeting \u201ccriminals\u201d. But these operations have swept up undocumented workers essential to rural economies. Small family farms and businesses in states including California, Idaho and Pennsylvania are reliant on immigrant labour for harvesting crops, dairy operations, and meatpacking. They now face acute shortages<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agricultural employment dropped by 155,000 workers<\/a> between March and July 2025, reversing prior growth trends. Farmers in Ventura County, California, for example, denounced raids that targeted routes frequented by agricultural workers. Fields lie unharvested signalling financial ruin for some operations. Family-run farms struggle to find replacements<\/a>. Low wages and gruelling conditions simply fail to attract American-born labourers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A broader sense of betrayal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This labour crisis exacerbates a broader sense of betrayal. Rural voters supported Trump for his anti-elite rhetoric, expecting protection for their livelihoods. Instead, the administration\u2019s actions have hollowed out local workforces without viable alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The H-2A visa programme<\/a>, meant to provide temporary foreign workers, has been streamlined \u2013 but remains insufficient amid ongoing raids, which deter even legal migrants. These disruptions ripple through small-town economies, where agriculture underpins community stability. Democrats, sensing opportunity<\/a>, are investing in rural outreach, emphasising economic populism to woo disillusioned voters who feel abandoned by Trump\u2019s enforcement zeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compounding these woes are the ongoing tariff disruptions. Trump touts his tariffs as tools to \u201cmake America great\u201d, but in fact they have driven up costs<\/a> for the same rural groups. Between January and September 2025, tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and others have surged, collecting US$125 billion<\/a>. However, the figure may be even higher<\/a> according to experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while the administration claims these taxes punish foreign adversaries, the burden falls squarely on American importers and consumers. Small businesses, which account for around 30% of imports, faced an average of US$151,000 in extra costs from April to September 2025, translating to $25,000 monthly hikes. Farmers, already squeezed by low grain prices, pay more for necessities, such as fertilisers (hit by 44% effective tariffs on Indian imports) and machinery parts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Midwest producers of soybeans, corn, and pork \u2013 key US exports \u2013 suffer doubly from retaliatory tariffs abroad, which reduce demand and depress revenues. In Tennessee and Pennsylvania, builders report 2.5% rises in material costs, while food prices climb due to duties on beef, tomatoes and coffee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump, meanwhile, is perceived as profiting personally. His properties and branding deals benefit from economic nationalism, even as family farms teeter on the verge of bankruptcy. This disparity fuels resentment<\/a>. Polls show Trump\u2019s approval slipping in swing counties, with economic anxiety eroding the loyalty that once overlooked his character flaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreign policy compounds domestic fractures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

These domestic fractures are mirrored in foreign policy, where Trump\u2019s interventionism starkly contradicts his campaign pledge of \u201cAmerica First\u201d restraint. Having promised no new wars, he has instead pursued aggressive postures that many Republicans view as unnecessary. The most emblematic is his renewed bid to acquire Greenland<\/a>, apparently by negotiation or force, which has swiftly followed the US raid on Venezuela in the first week of January, accompanied by threats against other Latin American countries including Cuba and Colombia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US president has justified demands for control over the Arctic island \u2013 citing threats from Russia and China \u2013 as a strategic necessity. But but Nato allies such as Denmark \u2013 of which Greenland is a constituent part \u2013 have rebuked it as an potentially alliance-shattering move. Congressional Republicans, including Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis, have\u00a0broken ranks<\/a>, warning that force would obliterate Nato and tarnish US influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such dissent highlights broader paradoxes. Trump\u2019s populist realism prioritises tough rhetoric for domestic consumption but yields aggressive, even reckless actions abroad. His administration is effectively dismantling post-1945 institutions while embracing 19th-century spheres-of-influence<\/a> and outright colonialist thinking, including invoking an updated version of the 1823 Monroe doctrine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Read more: The \u2018Donroe doctrine’: Maduro is the guinea pig for Donald Trump\u2019s new world order<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rural voters, weary of endless wars, supported his non-interventionist promises. Now they see echoes of past entanglements in Trump\u2019s suggestion that the US could intervene in Iran. This cognitive dissonance is accelerating disillusionment with his presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These self-inflicted but inherent contradictions are hastening a pivotal reckoning for Trumpism. In many counties that have thrice backed him<\/a> \u2013 and especially in swing counties \u2013 economic hardship and policy betrayals erode the cultural ties binding rural America to the Republican party. Democrats, through programmes such as the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative<\/a>, are betting on this \u201cbetrayal\u201d narrative, spotlighting farmers\u2019 plights to flip seats in November 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls show Latinos and independents souring on Trump<\/a>, with the US president\u2019s base turnout potentially waning as the midterm elections approach in November. If Republicans suffer larger-than-expected losses in those elections, it could mark the decline of Trumpism\u2019s grip by exposing its elite-serving underbelly beneath populist veneer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, without a compelling alternative vision, Democrats risk squandering this opening. For now, the fractures signal that Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d policies may ultimately leave its rural and rust belt champions behind. Whether Trumpism proves resilient or begins a long decline may well be decided not in Washington and Mar-a-Lago, but in the county seats and small towns that once formed its unbreakable base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is from The Conversation<\/a> under creative commons\u00a0<\/p>\n

Feature image added by Sceptical co-editor Fay Young: ‘Trump’s tools’ Violence, Sexism, Exclusion, Fear originally featured on a graffiti wall in Mission, San\u00a0 Francisco, California <\/span><\/p>\n

\"Grafitti<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Donald Trump\u2019s second term unfolds, the contradictions at the heart of his \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda are increasingly apparent. What began as a populist revolt against elite globalism appears to have morphed into policies that alienate the very rural and small-town constituencies that backed him in 2016, 2020 and 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":458,"featured_media":19049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[125],"tags":[724,725,150],"class_list":["post-19034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-maga","tag-populism","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/458"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19034"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19034\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}