{"id":17003,"date":"2025-06-09T12:37:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T12:37:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=17003"},"modified":"2025-07-12T09:07:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T09:07:14","slug":"the-fragmenting-map-of-scottish-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2025\/06\/the-fragmenting-map-of-scottish-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The fragmenting map of Scottish politics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In October 1967, a political earthquake struck the Scottish town of Hamilton.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Scottish National Party, until then a marginal force, surged to prominence when Winnie Ewing captured a Westminster seat long held by Labour. That by-election was transformative<\/a>, marking the start of the SNP\u2019s ascent into mainstream politics \u2013 a journey that would ultimately result in devolution, nationalist government, and a close-fought referendum on independence.<\/p>\n

Nearly sixty years later, Hamilton has once again become the stage for political disruption. The 2025 Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse \u2013 triggered by the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie \u2013 may prove another symbolic turning point. But this time, it is not the SNP that is making history. Nor is it a straightforward story of Labour revival. The real surprise has been the unprecedented rise of Reform UK, a party that until now had no electoral footprint in Scotland.<\/p>\n

A brittle comeback, a significant decline, and a populist surge<\/h2>\n

The headline result was a Labour victory<\/a> \u2013 the party won with 32% of the vote. This came as a surprise to many given the surrounding media narrative, but it was far from a commanding performance. In fact, the party\u2019s share fell by two points compared to the 2021 Holyrood election<\/a>, when it was struggling nationally (finishing third across Scotland, behind the Conservatives). However, the one-off nature of the contest and Labour\u2019s large intake of new Scottish MPs following its general election victory last year<\/a> allowed it to deploy a stronger ground operation, which limited losses and enabled it to finish first. That said, the resilience of the Labour vote even in the shadow of an unpopular UK Labour administration suggests that we will see three-way contests like this springing up all over Scotland next May. The morale boost provided by winning the seat will also allow the party to approach that contest with optimism rather than the doom and gloom that has seemed a fixture since Keir Starmer entered Downing Street last July.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the SNP \u2013 expected to retain the seat, albeit with a reduced majority \u2013 suffered losses largely corresponding to their defeat in that 2024 general election, plunging from 46% to 29%. The party\u2019s polling has stabilised but not risen, and the 29% in this constituency is not far from its national numbers. The even spread of SNP support around the country hurt the party last year, and they will now fear a repeat in 2026, albeit one muted by the proportional electoral system. Labour hope to focus minds on the nationalists\u2019 record in government and make the next Holyrood election about change north of the border, and this result suggests that is their best hope of dislodging John Swinney.<\/p>\n

The most notable takeaway from this by-election, however, came from Reform UK, which surged from essentially zero support to 26% \u2013 narrowly missing second place but outperforming expectations, including Britain Predicts\u2019 estimate of 23%<\/a>. Such a result would have been considered a triumph even in an English constituency last year. The fact that it was met with disappointment by some Farage supporters, who had hoped the party would take second or even win, only underscores how dramatic its rise in the Scottish context is. Meanwhile, the Conservatives endured a brutal collapse, falling from 18% to just 6%, and effectively exiting the contest \u2013 with Reform not only cannibalising Tory voters but attracting further support.<\/p>\n

The scale and asymmetry of these shifts point to a profound political realignment. Labour\u2019s surprise win \u2013 driven largely by the SNP\u2019s collapse \u2013 was underwhelming in its own right and reveals the absence of a single, dominant beneficiary from the nationalist party\u2019s decline. Instead, Scottish politics appears to be entering a far more fragmented and volatile phase \u2013 one in which old certainties are rapidly eroding.<\/p>\n

Is this the end of constitutional polarisation?<\/h2>\n

The defining feature of Scottish politics since the 2014 independence referendum has been structured constitutional polarisation<\/a>: a mutually reinforcing division between pro- and anti-independence blocs, embodied respectively by the SNP and the Conservatives. This dynamic persisted through the 2021 Scottish election. But the Hamilton by-election reinforces the result of the 2024 general election in demonstrating that this is now a thing of the past.<\/p>\n

The SNP\u2019s strategy under John Swinney to elevate Reform UK as its principal opponent \u2013 in an effort to create a new form of polarisation \u2013 appears to have backfired. Rather than consolidating progressive support, it may have inadvertently legitimised Reform and amplified its appeal among disillusioned voters. Unlike the \u2018symbiotic\u2019 SNP-Tory binary of the past<\/a>, there is currently no clear bulwark against Reform. Labour\u2019s ambiguous positioning, coupled with the Conservatives\u2019 continued decline, leaves the populist right-wing party facing little coordinated resistance.<\/p>\n

The result is not the emergence of a new structured polarisation, but its opposite: political flux. If the constitutional question once offered a kind of order to Scottish politics \u2013 however contentious \u2013 today\u2019s landscape is marked by volatility and fragmentation.<\/p>\n

The Reform disruption and its vulnerabilities<\/h2>\n

Reform UK\u2019s breakthrough, even in defeat, is disruptive. It upended assumptions about the impermeability of Scottish politics to Farage-style populism. The timing was also dramatic: on the day of the by-election, Reform\u2019s chairman Zia Yusuf resigned<\/a> \u2013 a reminder of the party\u2019s internal instability. Leadership crises are not uncommon among populist radical right parties, though they often only temporarily halt their rise. This pattern has been seen elsewhere in Europe. In Germany, for example, AfD\u2019s co-leader Frauke Petry quit shortly after the party\u2019s 2017 breakthrough<\/a>, when it won nearly 13% of the vote. The departure barely dented AfD\u2019s momentum; by 2025, it had become the country\u2019s second-largest party, with over 20% support.<\/p>\n

Whether Reform\u2019s rise in Hamilton is a one-off or the start of a long-term presence at Holyrood remains uncertain. But what is clear is that it taps into deeper discontents \u2013 not just with the SNP or Holyrood, but with the entire political establishment. The SNP, after nearly two decades in power, increasingly resembles the status quo it once opposed. Reform\u2019s anti-establishment message, even if simplistic, may resonate in this context. By positioning Reform as its principal opponent, the SNP risks legitimising Farage\u2019s party further \u2013 and, in doing so, may inadvertently cast itself as the main target of anti-establishment mobilisation. On the other hand, pro-independence Scots are almost uniformly left of centre and pro-EU and will therefore expect the party to take the fight to the radical right.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Unlike the SNP\u2019s rise, which was anchored in constitutional identity and aspirations for national self-determination, Reform\u2019s appeal is driven by cultural grievance and rejection of the political class. Its core themes \u2013 opposition to immigration, net zero, and socially progressive \u2018woke\u2019 politics \u2013 reflect a style of politics that, until recently, seemed to resonate primarily with voters in England and Wales. The fact that such a message could gain traction in Scotland \u2013 even in a one-off by-election \u2013 signals a potential shift in the political terrain.<\/p>\n

Still, there are significant obstacles to Reform\u2019s longer-term viability north of the border. Nigel Farage remains deeply unpopular among large segments of the Scottish public, particularly among the pro-independence, pro-EU, and socially progressive voters who make up nearly half of the electorate. This suggests that the party may face a low electoral ceiling, despite its sudden surge. Comparative experiences offer a mixed picture: for example, Italy\u2019s Northern League was able to rebrand\u00a0<\/a>and expand significantly into previously hostile territory \u2013 even in southern regions where the party had long been despised and virtually absent. Yet this success was short-lived and brought with it internal tensions and the risk of alienating core constituencies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For Reform UK to move from symbolic success to a sustained presence in Scotland, it will need more than provocative messaging. It will require organisational depth, a credible local infrastructure, and the ability to adapt its rhetoric to a Scottish context. So far, those elements appear lacking. The party\u2019s operations have been erratic, and its campaign \u2013 including a controversial advert targeting Anas Sarwar\u2019s Pakistani heritage \u2013 drew widespread criticism. The resignation of Yusuf further underscores Reform\u2019s organisational fragility, even at the UK level.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: system without anchors?<\/h2>\n

While the Hamilton result marks a powerful moment of disruption, it remains unclear whether this will translate into longer-term traction. What it does confirm, however, is that Scottish politics \u2013 once seen as unusually structured and stable \u2013 is entering an era of growing volatility, where insurgents like Reform can no longer be dismissed out of hand.<\/p>\n

The SNP\u2019s attempt to shift from a constitutional to a socio-cultural, progressive-versus-reactionary confrontation has stumbled. Labour\u2019s hoped-for resurgence appears more brittle than assured. Reform UK, while organisationally unstable, has become the wildcard \u2013 a disruptive actor in a system that no longer has clear structuring poles.<\/p>\n

This fragmentation carries risks. Without structured polarisation, Scottish politics may slide into unstructured volatility. A disruptive polariser like Reform UK could reshape the system without facing a coherent counterforce. In such a scenario, the rules of the political game are not just changing \u2013 they may be dissolving altogether.<\/p>\n

First published by the Centre on Constitutional Change<\/a><\/p>\n

Featured image: by Slaunger via Wikimedia Commons CC by-SA 4.0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“A disruptive polariser like Reform UK could reshape the system without facing a coherent counterforce. In such a scenario, the rules of the political game are not just changing \u2013 they may be dissolving altogether.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":449,"featured_media":13404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[125],"tags":[36],"class_list":["post-17003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-scottish-government"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/449"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}