Much of the debate on how Scotland will vote in the EU referendum has focused on whether a Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 and an English \u2018no\u2019 might trigger a second independence referendum \u2013 with England leaving the EU and Scotland staying in as a new member state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But there is another possibility \u2013 which could create its own constitutional outcry amongst the sceptics. And that is that a Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 could turn an English \u2018no\u2019 into a UK \u2018yes\u2019. This is not as unlikely as it may seem \u2013 a strong Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 and a narrow English \u2018no\u2019 would see Scottish voters saving the UK\u2019s four decade long participation in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Indeed a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times<\/a> this summer gave results \u2013 a 51% English \u2018no\u2019 and a 66% Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 \u2013 which, when you look at how that translates into actual voting numbers, could in fact result in Scotland\u2019s vote keeping Britain in Europe, tipping the UK as a whole into a \u2018yes\u2019 to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How that would go down with the Tory shires and the English Votes for English Laws constituency is a very interesting question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There would be multiple ironies here too. David Cameron would have Scotland to thank for saving his bacon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And any Scottish voters choosing \u2018yes\u2019 in the hope of provoking an #indyref2 might find they had, on the contrary, saved the UK\u2019s EU membership and so removed that potential trigger for a new independence referendum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, reports<\/a> that the #Brexit side are aiming to develop a Scottish-specific ‘no’ campaign start to make sense \u2013 Scotland could well lose the referendum for the various “leave” campaigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, it will all depend \u2013 as in elections and other referenda \u2013 on turnout as well as the percentages choosing \u2018yes\u2019 and \u2018no\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But if we do a calculation based on the UK general election turnouts for May 2015 \u2013 higher in Scotland (at 71.1%) than in the rest of the UK (65.8% for England, 65.7% for Wales and 58.1% for Northern Ireland) \u2013 then we can see what sort of levels the \u2018yes\u2019 and \u2018no\u2019 sides might have to reach for the Scottish vote to determine the overall result or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If turnout, and electorate size<\/a>, were the same as in the general election this May, and if \u2013 following the Panelbase\/Sunday Times poll \u2013 England (and for our first calculations Wales and Northern Ireland too) voted 51% \u2018no\u2019 to the EU, 49% \u2018yes\u2019, while Scotland voted very strongly 66% \u2018yes\u2019 and only 34% \u2018no\u2019, then Scotland tips the UK into an overall \u2018yes\u2019 to staying in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The total UK \u2018yes\u2019 vote would be 15.50 million and the total \u2018no\u2019 vote would be 15.13 million \u2013 a ‘yes’ majority of 378,218 votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is reversed if the rest of the UK gets its \u2018no\u2019 vote up to 52%. Then the 66% voting \u2018yes\u2019 in Scotland don\u2019t quite swing it; the whole of the UK votes \u2018no\u2019 to staying in Europe by a very narrow 176,288 votes for #Brexit. Calls for an #indyref2 at that point probably become unstoppable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If this calculation is repeated just for England and Scotland, then the results are overall the same: a 51% English \u2018no\u2019 is outdone by a Scottish 66% \u2018yes\u2019 with a lead, in this case, of over 400,000 votes. A 52% English \u2018no\u2019 still wins the day for #Brexit, albeit with a very slender 86,809.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even if the Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 vote is less strong than 66% in favour, it still defeats an English 51% \u2018no\u2019 vote \u2013 down to a level of Scotland voting 59% in favour (with a tiny Scotland and England \u2018yes\u2019 majority of just under 15,000 votes). At a Scottish 58% \u2018yes\u2019 vote, an English \u2018no\u2019 tips the overall result into a #Brexit (with a 43,405 majority). This means the Wales and Northern Ireland votes could be critical too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If these two come out as at least moderately pro-EU, as is likely, then an English \u2018no\u2019 cannot win the day unless it gets to at least 53%. Polling for Wales and Northern Ireland shows that their electorates are less sceptical than the English, especially in Northern Ireland (doubtless influenced by the understanding that #Brexit could make the Ireland\/Northern Ireland border very problematic \u2013 it would become one of the EU\u2019s external borders). In Wales, opinion is more sympathetic to the EU than in England but not by as much as in Scotland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Northern Ireland votes in favour of the EU \u2013 at least at the level of 58% \u2018yes\u2019 (as in a recent poll<\/a>, though the definite \u2018nos\u2019 were in fact only 16%) \u2013 and if Wales votes at least narrowly in favour<\/a> too (say at 52.5% \u2018yes\u2019), then a 51% \u2018no\u2019 vote in England loses to the \u2018yes\u2019 side by over half a million votes. Even a 52% \u2018no\u2019 vote in England is still not enough to win it for the sceptics \u2013 the \u2018yes\u2019 side could inch ahead by just over 100,000 votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At 53%, an English \u2018no\u2019 finally wins it by a majority of about 400,000 votes \u2013in the face of positive support for staying in the EU in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (something that could be reversed by stronger \u2018yes\u2019 votes in Wales and Northern Ireland than used in the calculations for this blog).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, it may not be this close. David Cameron will bring home his reform package from Brussels \u2013 and weak as it is likely to be, the polls could widen out again giving the \u2018yes\u2019 side a comfortable lead. But the closer it gets, the bigger an impact Scotland, and (though to a lesser extent) Wales and Northern Ireland may have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And those trying to vote tactically \u2013 to ensure there is a Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 in the face of an English \u2018no\u2019 as a route to #indyref2 \u2013 will have to ponder hard as to the point at which too many Scottish \u2018yes\u2019 votes ensure the UK as whole also says \u2018yes,\u2019 not \u2018no,\u2019 to a European future.<\/p>\n\n\n\nDishing #Brexit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n