{"id":16124,"date":"2024-04-29T09:34:57","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T09:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=16124"},"modified":"2024-06-07T08:03:46","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T08:03:46","slug":"blind-men-and-the-elephant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2024\/04\/blind-men-and-the-elephant\/","title":{"rendered":"Blind men and the elephant"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u2018A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.\u00a0 Tell him you disagree and he turns away.\u00a0 Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources.\u00a0 Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.\u2019\u00a0\u00a0 These are the opening words to\u00a0When Prophecy Fails<\/em>, a classic social psychology study, first published in 1956.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The authors infiltrated a movement that was led to believe that the world would come to an end at a precise moment.\u00a0 The researchers were interested in the impact on believers when the prophecy failed.\u00a0 They came across news reports that Mrs Marian Keech (a pseudonym adopted in the book) had received messages from the \u2018Elder Brother\u2019 and other \u00a0non-terrestrial sources.\u00a0 A gigantic flood would happen before dawn on December 21, 1954.\u00a0 Believers would be saved by a UFO.\u00a0 Anticipating this occurrence, some of her followers prepared for the apocalypse by giving up their jobs and disposing of their worldly possessions.<\/p>\n

The impact of the inevitable failed prophecy varied.\u00a0 Some people peeled away from the sect but others swallowed a series of spurious, disingenuous inventions to keep them faithful.\u00a0 The authors concluded that believers presented with irrefutable disconfirmatory evidence are frequently left with a conviction \u2018not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth\u2019 of their beliefs.\u00a0 Abandoning a deeply held conviction is neither \u00a0easy, nor comfortable.<\/p>\n

Political faith and facts<\/h2>\n

Examples abound in politics.\u00a0 The mounting evidence of an environmental crisis was challenged by many who purported to offer alternative evidence. It now seems absurd that anyone would ever claim that smoking was good for you or deny that smoking caused cancer or heart disease but tobacco companies insisted that the evidence was inconclusive.\u00a0 And we now see the same with vaping.<\/p>\n

Former Energy Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson\u2019s 2009 book \u2013 notably entitled An Appeal to Reason: a cool look at global warming<\/em> – sought to turn criticism on its head.\u00a0 But it was more his skills as a journalist that were on display than any other expertise in a book that should now embarrass Lawson. In this case it was less faith than interests that no doubt lay behind the polemic.\u00a0 Hard line Brexiteers will always find reason to explain away evidence of the failures of leaving the EU.<\/p>\n

Abuse often replaces reason when reason challenges a deeply held belief.\u00a0\u00a0 Nicola Sturgeon\u2019s supporters became no less convinced of an imminent vote on \u00a0independence even as evidence mounted that she was taking them on a merry march up and down a referendum hill.\u00a0 Patrick Harvie\u2019s infamous reply on the Cass Review<\/a> that he had \u2018seen far too many criticisms\u2019 might have been fine if he had provided contradictory evidence from credible sources.\u00a0 But blind faith is more powerful than any amount of scientific evidence.<\/p>\n

Having beliefs, an ideology or political convictions is not the problem.\u00a0 Values and beliefs are important and ever present.\u00a0 They guide decision making, provide direction and inspiration.\u00a0 The problem arises when dogma takes over.\u00a0 Scepticism is healthy though sadly scepticism is a term that was colonised in the EU membership debate by those who were the very antithesis of scepticism.\u00a0 Euro-scepticism in its proper sense is healthy \u2013 including in the EU-27.\u00a0 But Euro-scepticism UK-style became unthinking Euro-dogma, a belief system that permitted no room for doubt.<\/p>\n

This is not to suggest that we should uncritically accept the evidence of experts.\u00a0 Without going anywhere near so far as abiding by Michael Gove\u2019s injunction that this country \u2018has had enough of experts\u2019, it is fair to question and challenge experts.\u00a0 The source of any criticism is important.<\/p>\n

A clash of ideas, conflicting evidence, and alternative understandings and expertise are the stuff of serious public policy.\u00a0 Even the smartest amongst us can get it wrong and the most brilliant can stray into areas beyond their expertise.\u00a0 As John Maynard Keynes famously said: \u2018When the facts change, I change my mind \u2013 what do you do, sir?\u2019\u00a0 It is fine to explore evidence thrown up by some correlation but correlation is not causation.\u00a0 But to see what appears at first sight to be a causal relationship and stick with this when further study undermines it or throws up alternative explanations can be avoided by adopting a questioning or more sceptical attitude in the first place.<\/p>\n

Blind men and the elephant<\/h2>\n

What philosopher Nathan Ballantyne referred to as \u2018epistemic trespassing\u2019 is all too common.\u00a0 An example cited by Ballantyne was the case of Linus Pauling: having won two Nobel prizes (for Chemistry in 1954 and Peace in 1962) he was assuredly a brilliant expert but he trespassed into a neighbouring area of expertise.\u00a0 Pauling maintained that large doses of ascorbic acid were effective in treating a range of conditions from the common cold to cancer.\u00a0 The medical establishment and much research were more than a little sceptical.\u00a0 It is not that ascorbic acid \u2013 better known as Vitamin C – is regarded as bad for you by medical profession, it just doesn\u2019t cure cancer.<\/p>\n

Over-reach is a problem.\u00a0 It should be good enough to claim something helps without having to claim it has super powers. Politicians want \u2018solutions\u2019 \u2013 especially \u2018world leading\u2019 ones – when what may be available are \u2018good enough\u2019 responses.\u00a0 If you are looking for utopia then best join Mrs Keech or some religious organisation rather than a political party.<\/p>\n

But we need to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.\u00a0 We should not discourage people moving out of comfort zones of expertise.\u00a0 Better still, we should heed Ballantyne\u2019s advice: \u2018we\u00a0must<\/em>\u00a0trespass to answer most important questions.\u2019\u00a0 Moving into another area of competence can take time and effort.\u00a0 But trespassing intelligently points toward social solutions.\u00a0 Acknowledging, respecting and exploring the diversity of perspectives is important.\u00a0 We should remember the parable of the blind men and the elephant<\/a>.\u00a0 All of them were required to describe accurately, let alone understand the elephant. As Frederick Schauer has noted, it is often said we live in an era of experts but in truth we live in an age of \u2018duelling experts\u2019.\u00a0 And as he noted, nonexpert reliance on expertise is as \u2018irrevocably problematic as it is irrevocably necessary\u2019.<\/p>\n

Wicked problems \u2013 complex problems with complex causes that do not lend themselves to easy solutions \u2013 especially require a range of expertise.\u00a0 The response to wicked problems will often depend on which expertise is dominant. And crucially, real expertise is often overlooked.\u00a0 It exists in our communities \u2013 the phrase \u2018lived experience\u2019 may be over-used and all too often used by those without relevant lived experience.\u00a0 Few who have lived experience ever refer to themselves in that way but they need to be heard.\u00a0 So too do those who actually deliver services.\u00a0 Ministers deliver speeches but little else.\u00a0 Delivery is done by teachers, nurses and the range of public servants working in our communities.<\/p>\n

Government knows best<\/h2>\n

Scottish policy making remains too top-down, centralised with bureaucrats at the centre assuming their expertise trumps all others.\u00a0 Disconfirmatory evidence that things are not working is often ignored.\u00a0 Believers find excuses, blame others while their support for their pet policy is, as in\u00a0When Prophecy Fails<\/em>, \u2018not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth\u2019 of their way.<\/p>\n

Ministers might insist that if only local authorities were more efficient, focused, competent then progress would be made but wilfully ignore the cuts they imposed on local government and failure to listen to those much closer to delivery.\u00a0 Teacher-pupil ratios exemplify the problem.\u00a0 Of course, more teachers might help in closing the attainment gap but it is staggering how much evidence has been ignored on the complexities involved in progress on this front.\u00a0 Baby boxes help too but the question is whether or which policies should be applied uniformly and universally and the opportunity costs of policies \u00a0should be given far more attention in policy making.<\/p>\n

The choice of expert opinion is important.\u00a0 Our hyper-partisan polarised politics can lead to pigeon-holing designed to undermine expertise.\u00a0 Someone\u2019s view is accepted or dismissed too readily in polarised politics depending on opinions on \u00a0entirely separate matters.\u00a0 Doctors and dentists don\u2019t get trained in nationalist or unionist medicine, though there are big debates and differences within these professions.\u00a0 Another concern heard increasingly is that \u2018experts\u2019 are often chosen to provide a suitable, even pre-ordained answer.\u00a0 Unfortunately, there are genuine experts as well as trespassers who are willing to sell their name for financial gain, access to power, or plain old ego trips.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Organisations and people who become dependent on state support for funding will be understandably wary of criticising the hand that feeds them.\u00a0 But we should be wary \u2013 not necessarily dismissive \u2013 of their advice.\u00a0 Selling your soul cannot be legislated against but a blend of scepticism and accountability helps.\u00a0 There is nothing wrong and much to be gained by scrutinising expert opinion delivered \u00a0calmly and politely.<\/p>\n

Marian Keech was an extreme case of someone with unthinking followers but there are faint echoes of the unthinking evidence-free dogma in our politics.\u00a0 We need more sceptical Scots and fewer Keeches.<\/p>\n

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‘Scottish policy making remains too top-down, centralised with bureaucrats at the centre assuming their expertise trumps all others.\u00a0 Disconfirmatory evidence that things are not working is often ignored.\u00a0 Believers find excuses, blame others while their support for their pet policy is, as in\u00a0When Prophecy Fails, \u2018not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth\u2019 of their way.’<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":13808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-culture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/101"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16124\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}