{"id":16044,"date":"2024-03-19T10:22:24","date_gmt":"2024-03-19T10:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=16044"},"modified":"2024-04-09T08:19:19","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T08:19:19","slug":"snp-labour-and-the-general-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2024\/03\/snp-labour-and-the-general-election\/","title":{"rendered":"SNP, Labour and the general election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The only really significant political question about the general election in Scotland is whether Labour or the SNP come first \u2013 in vote share and in number of MPs.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Keir Starmer heads up a UK government where Labour has come first in England, Wales and Scotland, he can genuinely say that Labour is a government of the whole of Britain \u2013 albeit not Northern Ireland. It will be a notable contrast to today\u2019s Tory England, Labour Wales and SNP Scotland.<\/p>\n

But if the SNP come first in Scotland \u2013 and this will need to be in number of MPs not just share of the vote \u2013 then, even with probably many fewer seats than its 48 MPs in 2019, the SNP will be in a position to say it continues to speak for Scotland, and that Starmer\u2019s government does not speak for Scotland. And in terms of the independence debate \u2013 and the Holyrood election in 2026 \u2013 the political dynamics of the SNP being first or not are clearly substantial.<\/p>\n

Certainly, the SNP is not going to get 50% of the vote but it could yet get 50% of MPs \u2013 which will feed back into the independence referendum debate. But Labour might be the one that gets over 50% of seats. Or neither of them. The polls<\/a> are close but could well widen again. Labour is hovering around 33% (though a January poll gave them 36%) and the SNP, in the last few polls, are swinging between 39% and 33%. To succeed, the SNP need to start to hit 40% and see Labour stay at 33% or less.<\/p>\n

Visions of hope and influence<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s been much critical comment after First Minister, Humza Yousaf, trailed \u2013 and trialled \u2013 a top line for the election, at the SNP\u2019s Perth gathering on Saturday, that Scotland should be \u201cTory-free\u201d. With the Tories in free-fall, this is not particularly either an ambitious or a hugely salient goal. Whether none, one or two MPs, the Tories are not going to do well in Scotland, with a big chunk of their vote having already clearly shifted to Labour.<\/p>\n

The SNP needs to take Labour on clearly and upfront, not as an afterthought while talking about the Tories. Keir Starmer is, in many ways, making it easier for the SNP. He, shockingly, dropped his \u00a328bn a year green climate fund and, in so doing, cut a central part of hope and vision out of Labour\u2019s offering. Starmer is responsible for Labour\u2019s pusillanimous failure to call for a ceasefire in Gaza for almost five months \u2013 and then hedging it around with so many conditions, it was barely a policy shift. Starmer is sticking to austerity-style, absurdly tight fiscal rules, undermining his emphasis on growth or Labour\u2019s ability to talk convincingly about how it will rebuild the UK after 14 years of Tory government (refusing even to say the two child benefit cap will be removed).<\/p>\n

\n

And, despite the damage of Brexit, Starmer as PM insists the UK will not re-join the EU\u2019s single market or its customs union, so growth and the economy are really not being put first.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Humza Yousaf did talk<\/a> about Labour in his Perth speech. But it came across as a bit flimsy. He referenced Labour\u2019s green U-turn but rather in passing: \u201cThe one Labour policy that was different and would have helped boost Scotland\u2019s renewable potential has already been binned.\u201d The opportunity to underline the importance of the now-scrapped \u00a328 billion a year was missed. In his speech, Humza Yousaf went on to emphasise the importance of a just transition towards a green economy, but his main point was to obliquely criticise Labour\u2019s plan to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas companies from 75% to 78%: \u201cI say to the Tories and Labour, there is no justice in throwing thousands of Scottish workers on the scrapheap so you can fund nuclear power plants in England or give the wealthy a tax cut.\u201d<\/p>\n

There is a serious point in the mix here: Scotland should have a say over where the windfall tax receipts are spent \u2013 but it doesn\u2019t. But the SNP back the windfall tax at 75%, though you wouldn\u2019t know it from recent statements, and industry estimates of job impacts of the tax should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. The real problem with the windfall tax is that it will only come in at just over \u00a32 billion a year, contributing almost half of Labour\u2019s now measly \u00a34.7 billion a year planned green spend. This is where the argument needs to focus. It\u2019s a green failure from Labour \u2013 and yes one where Scotland should have a say.<\/p>\n

The SNP must decide if it is fully behind the rapid, deep green transition that Scotland needs or if it\u2019s going to hedge its bets through the election campaign in an effort to win some more votes in the North East. If it does the latter, then it will not be in a position to confront Labour on this vital and urgent transition. A report<\/a> last week from the Scottish Fiscal Commission underlined the additional investment and funding that is going to be vital if Scotland (and the UK) are to hit their net zero targets. Downplaying the issue in the election should not be an option \u2013 it would be a fatal cop-out.<\/p>\n

The challenge to Labour<\/h2>\n

Labour is carrying a strategy and policies into the general election that are distinctly small-c conservative. With no vision on repairing the damage of Brexit, a \u2018follow-the-US\u2019 foreign policy, fiscal policies that will be devastating if followed, and the dropping of a substantial, serious green policy, there is precious little hope on offer from Labour \u2013 beyond that of getting rid of the Tories.<\/p>\n

The SNP is well positioned to challenge Labour from a more progressive, social democratic position. The door is wide open. And they already have plenty of the arguments. Apart from the current reluctance to push the climate crisis and strategy to the fore, there is plenty of detail both in the First Minister\u2019s Perth speech, and in his speech,<\/a> last Tuesday, to the London School of Economics. Humza Yousaf told his London audience: \u201cIf we accept the analysis that this is the worst economic situation since 1945 we might expect a serious, transformative policy programme in response.\u201d<\/p>\n

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But the gaping holes in Labour\u2019s policy offerings, means that the SNP is in a position to be the voice, broadly-speaking, of genuine social democracy in this election (not a space the LibDems are choosing to occupy either). The question is will the SNP grasp that opportunity or fritter it away over local electoral calculations, an over-emphasis on the Tories, a loss of confidence after a difficult year, and continuing internal splits. Whenever the election finally comes, the strategic challenge to Labour needs to start now.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This is surely a good starting point for the challenge to Labour. Instead, of a big strategic vision, and substance to go with it, Labour is offering fiscal \u2018responsibility\u2019. And the SNP has plenty to say on green growth, the EU, progressive social policies \u2013 and progressive foreign policy. And it can link all of these to immediate, priority concerns of cost-of-living and crumbling public services, as well as to the further-off option of independence.<\/p>\n

The SNP always faces the challenge at Westminster elections that whatever the outcome the SNP will not form the UK government. So, it can offer voice and votes for Scottish interests but rarely with much influence. And as Labour heads towards a likely landslide, Scottish voters may yet want to be part of that Labour surge.<\/p>\n

But the gaping holes in Labour\u2019s policy offerings, means that the SNP is in a position to be the voice, broadly-speaking, of genuine social democracy in this election (not a space the LibDems are choosing to occupy either). The question is will the SNP grasp that opportunity or fritter it away over local electoral calculations, an over-emphasis on the Tories, a loss of confidence after a difficult year, and continuing internal splits. Whenever the election finally comes, the strategic challenge to Labour needs to start now.<\/p>\n

\n

First published on the author\u2019s Europe & Scotland Newsletter<\/a> on Substack<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Labour\u2019s fiscal caution and policy U-turns, not least with Starmer dumping his \u00a328bn green investment plan, have left the door wide open for a strong, broadly social-democratic challenge from the SNP to Labour\u2019s policies at the general election…so why is the SNP being so cautious and over-focusing on the Tories?”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15464,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[125],"tags":[122,671],"class_list":["post-16044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-brexit","tag-general-election-2024"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}