{"id":15394,"date":"2023-07-04T09:57:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-04T09:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/?p=15394"},"modified":"2023-07-28T09:47:45","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T09:47:45","slug":"could-we-soon-see-a-united-ireland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceptical.scot\/staging\/2023\/07\/could-we-soon-see-a-united-ireland\/","title":{"rendered":"Could we soon see a united Ireland?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If the British state is under the impression that the SNP\u2019s crisis has stalled the movement to break up the UK, then it\u2019s not paying attention to what\u2019s happening across the Irish Sea. When Sinn F\u00e9in wins the next general election in the Republic \u2013 which polls say it almost certainly will \u2013 it will have two items on its to-do list.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Tame Irish capitalism. 2) Unite Ireland.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The need for the former is driving the party\u2019s popularity. The latter will panic the British state. For the first time in modern history, the UK will have on its border a government intent on breaking it up. The SNP runs Scotland from within a constitutional system controlled by Westminster and without international representation. Sinn F\u00e9in will have no such restrictions.<\/p>\n

    Even the fact of the party\u2019s victory will be extraordinary, likely triggering a screech of English nationalism.<\/p>\n

    And Sinn F\u00e9in leading the Republic of Ireland will likely coincide with Sinn F\u00e9in leading Northern Ireland. If the Northern Irish Assembly has reconvened by then, the party\u2019s leader will be the taoiseach in the south, and its deputy leader the first minister in the north \u2013 in a sense, a form of de-facto unity.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \n

    \u201cYou just have to say it out loud\u201d to begin to see the implications, says Colin Harvey, a law professor at Queen\u2019s University in Belfast and a board member of Ireland\u2019s Future, a non-profit that campaigns for unification. \u201cYou increasingly hear people talk about a referendum [on Irish unity] happening this decade.\u201d<\/p>\n

    In the Republic<\/h2>\n

    For a hundred years, Sinn F\u00e9in in the Republic of Ireland was a historical curiosity. Both of Ireland\u2019s traditional main parties, Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael, emerged as splits from it during the civil war of the 1920s, but since then, the parent party itself has barely registered, its political support inhibited by its association with the IRA.<\/p>\n

    In the 1997 Irish general election, Sinn F\u00e9in got 2.5% of the vote share \u2013 the party\u2019s best result since 1961. In 2016, it breached 10% for the first time in 90 years. In 2020, led by Mary Lou McDonald, it came first in the popular vote, with 25%, but she was excluded from power by an alliance between Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael. Since then, her party\u2019s support has surged above 30% in the polls, consistently leading its rivals by more than 10%. The next election is due by January 2025, and it\u2019s extremely likely<\/a> that McDonald will become taoiseach.<\/p>\n

    The party\u2019s growth is largely because it is left-wing. As property prices have surged back since the 2008 crash, younger people have been pushed out of the housing market. Homelessness rates are rising. And Ireland still doesn\u2019t have proper universal healthcare, despite long-standing promises from all parties. In the 2020 elections, voters listed healthcare and housing<\/a>as their most important issues, followed by \u2018the economy\u2019 and climate change. Reunification of Ireland didn\u2019t feature.<\/p>\n

    The opening section of Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s manifesto that year was clear:<\/a> \u201cSinn F\u00e9in is a United Ireland party. Our core political objective is to achieve Irish Unity.\u201d But the party largely won over millennial and Gen Z voters by promising \u201cthe biggest council-led house-building programme this state has ever seen\u201d, rent rebates, mortgage caps and, crucially, an \u2018Irish NHS\u2019.<\/p>\n

    Most citizens of the Republic are in favour<\/a> of a united Ireland, but it\u2019s not a priority \u2013 for now. Just as progressive Scottish voters in 2007 and 2011 backed the SNP primarily to oppose Labour\u2019s rightward drift but came to embrace the constitutional consequences of doing so, so Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s new voters in Ireland aren\u2019t supporting them in order to create a constitutional crisis in Britain. That\u2019s just going to be an added bonus.<\/p>\n

    Northern Ireland<\/h2>\n

    In the North, The Good Friday Agreement is a beached whale: magnificent, stuck, probably dying. It achieved its main aim. The civil war ended. The peace may be incomplete, but it\u2019s held firm. Civil war is unlikely to return.<\/p>\n

    But the era of Northern Irish politics that began with that peace deal 25 years ago has come to an end. The institutions it created \u2013 the Assembly and the Northern Irish executive, the North\/South ministerial council<\/a> \u2013 have mostly been suspended for the past five years.<\/p>\n

    Political Protestants, who traditionally identify as British and are used to dominating, already had difficulty swallowing a settlement that left them the first among equals, the biggest minority in a power-sharing arrangement. Now they\u2019ve been relegated to second place behind the cultural Catholics \u2013 who normally think of themselves as Irish \u2013 both in raw numbers, according to the 2021 census, and politically, in the form of Sinn F\u00e9in election victories. The result is that the political protestants\u2019 largest party, the DUP, won\u2019t even sit at the table.<\/p>\n

    The local elections in May brought the most extraordinary sign of change. While Unionists could put Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s Assembly success last year down to a three-way split in their own vote, this time, the combined vote for nationalist parties was bigger than the unionists\u2019. Sinn F\u00e9in won its first councillors deep in Loyalist country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Mostly, this success has come from winning over culturally Catholic women. Polling in 2019<\/a> showed men were around 10%<\/a> more likely to vote for Sinn F\u00e9in \u2013 perhaps because women were put off by the party\u2019s macho image and association with historic paramilitary violence. But while male support has stayed steady since then, female support has shot up over the last year, to the point that women are now<\/a> around<\/a> 10% more likely<\/a> than men to back the party.<\/p>\n

    But there seems to be something more subtle going on, too. Much of the unionist demise has come from falling turnout among Protestants. For years now, unionist voters I have interviewed have been angry at the DUP over a string of corruption allegations<\/a>, its failure to stand up to austerity and, for some, its conservative social policies. But they would still show up and vote for them out of fear of a Sinn F\u00e9in victory. Now they aren\u2019t bothering.<\/p>\n

    So while Sinn F\u00e9in leader in the north Michelle O\u2019Neill\u2019s efforts to cosy up to unionist communities \u2013 attending the coronation, for example \u2013 hasn\u2019t persuaded them to vote for her, it seems to have made it harder for the DUP to scare them into turning out to vote against her.<\/p>\n

    There are other factors making Irish unity look more appealing, too. With the DUP refusing to allow Northern Ireland\u2019s government to form under a Sinn F\u00e9in first minister, the Conservative Northern Irish secretary in Westminster has taken control of finances, setting what many are calling a \u2018punishment budget\u2019. As one contact \u2013 whose job in Northern Irish politics means they must stay anonymous \u2013 put it: \u201cWhile that won\u2019t motivate [DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson] back into power, it will move us closer to multi-service collapse\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Thanks to staff shortages<\/a>, an additional 200 special educational needs classes are needed in Northern Ireland by September to meet demand. Better pay and conditions for doctors means NHS Northern Ireland is facing an exodus of staff to the Republic<\/a>. Even before the pandemic, Northern Irish patients were around 3,000 times<\/a> more likely to wait more than a year to see a consultant than those in England. In March this year, the BMA warned that Northern Ireland\u2019s health service is collapsing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Compare and contrast<\/h2>\n

    Across the border, the situation looks different.<\/p>\n

    Ireland is engulfed in a housing crisis<\/a>, but its homelessness rates are far lower than the UK\u2019s, with five times fewer people experiencing homelessness than in Northern Ireland<\/a>, despite it having almost three times the population. England\u2019s<\/a> homelessness rate is also more than twice Ireland\u2019s<\/a>. In Ireland, the housing crisis is driven by the fact that the average house price has risen to around five times the average wage<\/a>; in the UK, it\u2019s seven times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    In the UK, 3.6 babies<\/a> in every 1,000 live births die within the first year of life; in Ireland, it\u2019s 2.6. The average Irish person now lives more than two years longer<\/a> than the average British person and has had nearly three more years<\/a>of education.<\/p>\n

    And while both the UK and Ireland have dangerously unfettered capitalisms, Ireland\u2019s is much more successful. Its raw GDP per capita<\/a> is more than twice the UK\u2019s. (Though to be fair, Ireland\u2019s figure is puffed up by multinationals registering there for tax reasons, while British equivalents are often in its overseas territories, so not its figure. Per capita Gross National Income figures strip out that fluff, and leave Ireland just 50% richer<\/a> than the UK.) Average wages are about the same<\/a>, but Ireland is significantly more equal<\/a>, with better welfare support.<\/p>\n

    \u201cIt is,\u201d as Brendan O\u2019Leary, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, says to me, \u201cmuch, much better to be poor in the Republic of Ireland than it is to be poor in the United Kingdom.\u201d<\/p>\n

    And the capsize of the Catholic Church in the 2010s in the wake of a string of scandals, followed by the magnificent referendums on abortion rights and marriage equality, has meant Ireland started appearing less and less like a bigoted backwater. In 1991, 92% of Irish people identified as Catholic<\/a>. By 2011, it was 84%<\/a>. In 2016, 79%. By 2022, 69%<\/a>. Its influence has fallen even further. Homosexuality was illegal in Ireland until 1993. Now, the country has a gay Taoiseach.<\/p>\n

    \n

    In Northern Ireland, the result of all this has been a remarkable change in attitudes towards a United Ireland.<\/p>\n

    In June 2013, just 3.8% of people<\/a> in Northern Ireland told pollsters they\u2019d vote for a United Ireland \u2018now\u2019. Interviewing people across Belfast around that time, huge numbers told me that, though they thought of themselves as Irish nationalists, they would actually vote against unification to keep the NHS and Britain\u2019s welfare state. That was before Brexit and a decade of austerity.<\/p>\n

    More recent polls tend to show support for unity between 30% and 40%, with around 50% opposing and the rest undecided.<\/p>\n

    Shifting demographics<\/h2>\n

    The Good Friday Agreement requires the British secretary of state for Northern Ireland to call a referendum \u201cif it appears likely\u201d that most people would back a United Ireland. For those who support reunification, there is still work to do to pass that hurdle \u2013 particularly in reaching the two groups that seem open to the idea.<\/p>\n

    The first is those whom O\u2019Leary, who leads research into public opinion for the ARINS programme (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South), describes as the \u201cwobblies\u201d \u2013 that is, those who tell researchers that they\u2019ve changed their mind on the question more than once. These people are largely older cultural Catholics, he says. \u201cThey\u2019d want to see the model that was specifically on offer. They’re probably more concerned about the potentially unsettling effects of unification on their welfare and their lifestyle.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    The second is voters \u2013 often young people \u2013 who aren\u2019t cultural Catholics but who don\u2019t oppose Irish unification as a principled matter of identity. \u201cThere is a significant portion of the Protestant population, at least 7%, maybe a little higher, who favour Irish unification,\u201d he says \u2013 a phenomenon that barely existed a decade ago. It could also include those whose backgrounds are mixed or those whose identities lie outside Northern Ireland\u2019s traditional dichotomy. In 2001, 0.4% of people<\/a> saw themselves as neither Catholic nor Protestant. Now, that\u2019s 20%. Around 7% don\u2019t identify as British, Irish or Northern Irish, but \u2018other\u2019, including more than 50,000 people with Eastern European identities.<\/p>\n

    As my anonymous contact puts it, many of these people are \u201c\u2018Sunday brunch types\u2019 \u2013 Remain voting, pro-LGBT, hate the DUP\u201d. They see themselves less as British or Irish, and more as cosmopolitan. They aren\u2019t yet excited by the idea of a United Ireland. But they are open to being. They are a very similar demographic to the one Sinn F\u00e9in has won over in droves in the Republic. They are a very similar group to that which has shifted towards supporting Scottish independence over the last decade.<\/p>\n

    For Harvey, \u201cit\u2019s about breaking down some of the myths\u201d about the Republic, hangovers from its past as an impoverished outpost of the Vatican. \u201cIreland is a successful EU state. At the end of the day, it\u2019s a proposition about a fairer future for everyone in an Ireland that\u2019s been held back by partition and division,\u201d he argues.<\/p>\n

    To do this, Ireland\u2019s Future has been calling for the Irish government to do more, including all Ireland civic assemblies looking at key questions for what unification would look like.<\/p>\n

    There needs to be, Harvey argues, \u201ca much more focussed governmental effort around doing the work in advance \u2013 nobody wants to see a repeat of the Brexit mess where people did not really know what they were voting for or against.\u201d<\/p>\n

    O\u2019Leary argues that \u201cthat requires hard work over the rest of this decade\u201d including forming a Ministry of National Reunification and \u201ca standing constitutional forum\u201d.<\/p>\n

    These things seem much more likely if Sinn F\u00e9in wins.<\/p>\n

    Obstacles to reunification<\/h2>\n

    Another contact \u2013 a Northern Irish political strategist \u2013 is more sceptical. \u201cI still think a United Korea will happen before a United Ireland,\u201d they say. \u201cThere won\u2019t be a United Ireland until Ireland has socialised healthcare.\u201d<\/p>\n

    And for all its promises to bring social democracy to the Republic, they argue, Sinn F\u00e9in has been in government in the North for years and consistently failed to deliver almost anything.<\/p>\n

    \u201cThey had the housing minister, and they haven\u2019t even ended the right to buy!\u201d says my contact, referring to the Thatcher-era policy of allowing tenants to buy the council houses they live in, which has led to a disastrous reduction of social housing stock, and which both Scottish and Welsh governments have stopped.<\/p>\n

    In the end, whether or not we see a United Ireland likely comes down to two key factors.<\/p>\n

    Firstly, Sinn F\u00e9in’s attitude after it wins in the Republic. The party can\u2019t disappoint its young voters \u2013 it needs, probably more than anything else, to make good on its promise to build an Irish NHS. It also needs to resolve Ireland\u2019s housing crisis \u2013 which will, as O\u2019Leary says to me \u2013 require a confrontation with the country\u2019s fear of dense housing<\/a> and modern urban planning.<\/p>\n

    And secondly, whether Northern Irish civil society groups and pluralistic social movements can convince their fellow citizens that a United Ireland offers a clearer path to social justice and a better life than the British state. Realistically, this is who would be delivering Irish unity because Sinn F\u00e9in probably won\u2019t win over the remaining swing voters in Northern Ireland. The party may look like a fresh force in the Republic, but there are still too many who don\u2019t trust them in the North.<\/p>\n

    But there is a third factor, too. With more and more Northern Irish voters consciously choosing between a future under London or Dublin rule, it\u2019s not just the Irish state that needs to sort itself out.<\/p>\n

    Anglo-British nationalism continues to spiral out of control. For the last few years, the British state has at least been able to pretend that a Labour government might come over the horizon, and solve some of the problems created by the Tories and their austerity.<\/p>\n

    If and when that cavalry does arrive, it will likely come in the flaccid form of Keir Starmer, triangulating towards a far-right Tory opposition. A Sinn F\u00e9in-run Ireland may not have to work too hard to convince voters that they are better off under its wings.<\/p>\n

    First published by openDemocracy\u00a0<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

    Featured image: Sinn F\u00e9in, CC BY 2.0 <httpss:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons<\/em><\/p>\n

    See also: Brian Pope, Northern Ireland\u2019s best chance of economic recovery, Slugger O’Toole<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

    \n

    On 18 November, openDemocracy is co-hosting a conference on the end of the Union. Speakers from across these islands \u2013 Caroline Lucas, Fintan O\u2019Toole, Kojo Koram, Neal Ascherson, Leanne Wood and more \u2013 will be gathering with hundreds of people in Edinburgh\u2019s Assembly Rooms to discuss \u2018The Break Up of Britain?\u2019.<\/em> Book your tickets now<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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