‘Where Scottish politics and independence goes in the face of no Brexit is one more open question. Independence, after all, would be much more straightforward to manage if the UK remains in the EU.’
‘What is missing is any dynamic between insider and outsider Scotland, or an understanding that politics is about power, contested ideas and different social constituencies.’
‘Underlying (onshore) economic and fiscal fundamentals are little different now to at the time of the first referendum. Economic debate around any second referendum is therefore likely to concentrate on: productivity growth prospects; how to narrow Scotland’s fiscal deficit; and how to improve the Current Account.’
A Scottish Citizens Assembly could breathe fresh air into the political debate. But it poses risks for all the parties, argues Michael Keating.
An independent Scotland could find a new dynamism which would improve its economic performance. But not overnight. A new currency would almost certainly start at a discount to sterling.
Independence is far from guaranteed and big issues such as currency are unresolved but Scotland’s chances of (re)joining the EU as a member state have improved.
‘Post-independence, your plan makes as much political and economic sense as unilaterally adopting changes to the financial regulations of Singapore.’
‘Even if Scotland cannot now save the UK from Brexit, it could still enable the UK Government to proceed with its existing EU deal but at a price.’
The 2014 indy proposals stressed close integration, maintenance of the currency union, close economic and social ties, and open borders, a model facilitated by membership of both countries in the EU. Back to the drawing board?
‘The status quo that brought us to Brexit will not get us out of it. While that time has gone, it is clear a new way of talking about the future was sorely needed anyway, even more so two years on. Meanwhile we are presented with an opportunity: in the breaking down of established common sense comes an opportunity to recreate and redefine.’