‘Underlying (onshore) economic and fiscal fundamentals are little different now to at the time of the first referendum. Economic debate around any second referendum is therefore likely to concentrate on: productivity growth prospects; how to narrow Scotland’s fiscal deficit; and how to improve the Current Account.’
A Scottish Citizens Assembly could breathe fresh air into the political debate. But it poses risks for all the parties, argues Michael Keating.
An independent Scotland could find a new dynamism which would improve its economic performance. But not overnight. A new currency would almost certainly start at a discount to sterling.
Independence is far from guaranteed and big issues such as currency are unresolved but Scotland’s chances of (re)joining the EU as a member state have improved.
‘Post-independence, your plan makes as much political and economic sense as unilaterally adopting changes to the financial regulations of Singapore.’
‘Even if Scotland cannot now save the UK from Brexit, it could still enable the UK Government to proceed with its existing EU deal but at a price.’
The 2014 indy proposals stressed close integration, maintenance of the currency union, close economic and social ties, and open borders, a model facilitated by membership of both countries in the EU. Back to the drawing board?
‘The status quo that brought us to Brexit will not get us out of it. While that time has gone, it is clear a new way of talking about the future was sorely needed anyway, even more so two years on. Meanwhile we are presented with an opportunity: in the breaking down of established common sense comes an opportunity to recreate and redefine.’
‘Together, these measures could reduce the political and economic significance of the border between Scotland and England, even in the event of an independent Scotland becoming an EU member state while the rest of the UK stayed out. How ironic that DUP intransigence may inadvertently aid the case for Scottish independence!’
‘…the devolution settlement is in flux and it will remain to be seen whether Westminster will firmly establish itself in the driving seat or whether Scotland and the other devolved nations will gain true additional powers….’