‘Where Scottish politics and independence goes in the face of no Brexit is one more open question. Independence, after all, would be much more straightforward to manage if the UK remains in the EU.’
Independence is far from guaranteed and big issues such as currency are unresolved but Scotland’s chances of (re)joining the EU as a member state have improved.
‘Fudging both the timing of an independence referendum and the SNP’s position on a ‘people’s vote’ looks like getting more difficult as Brexit D-day draws nearer this autumn.’
A strong stance from the SNP on a people’s vote does not yet look likely. If Labour found its nerve on this, the SNP, it seems, would follow not lead. The big challenge on Brexit for the Scottish government is whether it can find its nerve on Brexit, as its MPs at Westminster have done, and lead not follow.
‘Corbyn’s speech is most important for its opening up a clear policy divide – 20 months after the Brexit vote – between Labour and Tories. That should make for an opposition starting to hold the government more to account. Whether it will result in the torpedoing of May’s Brexit strategy or even in an early election are the big questions that lie ahead.
‘To argue for the UK to stay in the EU’s single market and customs union is to argue to stay as close to the status quo as possible while giving up vote, voice and a seat at the table. Faced with a more damaging type of Brexit, it sounds sensible – until you look at the democratic cost. Compared to being an EU member state it is surely absurd’.
“For political parties that want a second vote – whether on the UK staying in the EU or Scotland being independent in the EU – this will be the key time.” “If the talks break down, then autumn 2018 will be a moment of crisis – one that all players should be making their plans for now, too.”
“Sturgeon’s paper is a serious in-depth piece of analysis. It respects the original Scottish Parliament vote by 92-0…The Scottish Government has followed up and respected that vote – but the politics has moved on. A differentiated deal for Scotland looks highly unlikely. And while the ball is now in May’s court – it is likely to be back in Sturgeon’s very soon.
“Theresa May’s refusal to bring a bill to the Commons or to publish a White Paper on Brexit has been an extraordinary rejection of basic democratic accountability and debate.” But: “84% of MPs at Westminster voted to set the UK on a rapid path to Brexit, with the Tory government of the day supported by the main Labour opposition.”
“Might there be an early general election? This looks very likely if MPs did succeed in passing a vote that either rejected Theresa May’s Brexit negotiating goals or if they passed a vote for a second referendum on the outcome of the talks… an early general election would result in a Tory landslide and ensure a fairly free hand for May from then on.”