France is yet again in turmoil after last week’s vote by a fractious National Assembly to reject an important part of next year’s budget. And the country is now in economic recession. Leading analyst Gerald Olivier reckons there can be no credible plan for a way out, so long as there can be no proper government without an effective majority.
And yet, when Emmanuel Macron became France’s youngest ever President eight years ago, aged just 39, he was the white hope reformer determined to reshape the structure of his country’s politics.
Fifteen years previously, he’d seen how the defeat of the far right’s Jean-Marie Le Pen at the 2002 Presidential elections depended on French left-wingers reluctantly voting for Jacques Chirac. Macron’s main purpose became the reform of France’s mainstream parties so as to always guarantee the exclusion of the National Front from power.
But Macron has now been president for eight years, and his approval ratings have never been lower. His arrival in power obliged him to deal with France’s untenable public expenditure.
The French electorate refused to bite on the bullet loaded by Macron – the raising of the pension age from 62 to 64. A pension, incidentally, a quarter higher than the British equivalent, which from April next year will only be paid to those reaching the age of 67. In true revolutionary tradition, the French people have always exercised their right to protest at government proposals. And they succeeded again In October.
Letting Farage and Le Pen set the agenda
After years of arm wrestling and endless demos, the beleaguered prime minister Sebastian Cornu gave in and shelved the raising of the pension age. Macron’s central aim recasting the political landscape involved too many unpopular measures. The medicine prescribed was just too strong, and drove too many voters towards the National Rally of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter Marine, and her heir apparent Jordan Bardella.
In marginalising the traditional French parties, like the Union for a Popular Movement of Chirac, or Mitterand’s Socialist Party, Macron has gave a new credibility to the far-right Rally as the principal opposition. They’ve led the polls now for the past two years, during which time Macron has lost three Prime Ministers in an increasingly desperate attempt to deal with the crisis
There are parallels, in this tale of unintended consequences, with the present state of British politics. In identifying the priority threat as Nigel Farage’s Reform, PM Starmer has tied the Labour Party to a platform of harsher policies which are unlikely to attract Reform supporters while alienating traditional Labour voters.
Macron and Starmer are also alike in their determination to ignore politicians of the left. In other words allowing Farage and Le Pen to set the agenda.
.So Britain’s problem is the same as France’s, and indeed that of the USA; how to resist the simple, seductive allure of the populist politician, cynically scapegoating immigrants and blaming the allegedly corrupt elites.
Things fall apart
W B Yeats would recognise the scenario: “Things fall apart. The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” He felt at the time of writing in 1918 that a new era of civilisation was being ushered in, and that democracy had run its course.
Standard and Poor, one of the leading credit rating agencies, have now downgraded the French national debt rating from double A- to A+ because of the retreat over pensions. They warn that the ratio of France’s debt to GDP could reach 120% in just three more years.
Two other major agencies have already issued downgrades.The result is that France will now have to pay higher interest on its borrowing to compensate investors for increased risk – placing an even greater strain on public finances. French public spending must be reduced, or there will be higher taxes, which in turn will further depress wealth creation in a country in desperate need of growth. But the public sector status quo in France sees too many workers dependent upon the state who are reluctant to vote themselves out of a job.
No compromise, no cohabitation, no coherence
The compromises the French body politic once made were legendarily pragmatic – as when President Chirac made a deal with his Socialist opponent François Mitterand forty years ago that became known as co-habitation, in order to ensure that a coherent programme of government could proceed.
But the new look French parties have become more quarrelsome and obdurate. Can French politicians finally make the necessary hard decisions themselves, or will they dither until the International Monetary Fund steps in and imposes severe measures over which France has no say?
In Britain, of course, public spending has already been cut to the bone, over many years of austerity, and wages remain static; voters have much less to lose than their French counterparts.
Faced with the choice between glib Nigel and halting, vague Keir, too many could find the siren song of populism worth a punt. Across the Channel, hardheaded French workers just might realise they still have too much to lose.
Lights flash red for EU and UK
“Unity between Americans and Europeans on the Ukrainian issue is essential,” Macron told reporters during his trip to China. “And I say it again and again, we need to work together.” Washington Post WorldView: Trump takes aim at the European Union
This week’s instruction to the USA’s embassies in the EU to support right-wing parties sets the red lights flashing both for Europe and the UK. Under Donald Trump the US has moved from (unreliable) ally to become an actual enemy not just of the EU but the UK – despite all Starmer’s blandishments.
Trump wants to see Europe divided into a series of populist-led nation states, easily dominated by the US and with the collective strength of the EU broken.
European leaders who still cling to the hope that Trump will repent and that the US security umbrella will remain in place are mistaken. Washington isn’t going to come to the defence of Europe if a NATO state is attacked by Russia.
France and Macron already know this, and the UK must throw its weight behind European values by building the closest possible relationship with the EU. Or become insignificant on the world stage.
Featured image: Le Passe-Muraille, The man who walked through walls – Jean Marais sculpture in Montmartre pays tribute to the story by Marcel Aymé Photo Fay Young
Bob Shaw says
As ever, SS offers sane – and telling – commentary. I wish the rest of our political discourse was as measured and as approachable )even when I disagree with some articles (not these ones!)).
Please keep up the good work.
Fay Young says
Thank you Bob, that’s great to hear